Talking to a couple of people who got the New train to work today, they said they'll be going back to the bus from tomorrow. The time getting to the station instead of getting the bus from their doorstep, and the walk getting from Central Station to Haymarket just didn't save time. One said they prefer just getting door to door and not having to walk, they just put Netflix on their mobile and relax from door to work on the bus.

I think the train will do well, but I don't think it'll hit Arriva too much. They'll likely have different passengers. But door to door and no changes may be a psychological reason for a lot of bus users to stick with it.