(3 hours ago)Superman wrote Car ownership, even 20 years ago, was much lower than it is now. For many people, buses were the main way of getting around. That has changed significantly, and while some point to privatisation, I think it is mostly down to generational change.
Buses are no longer seen as an attractive option. For many young people, having a driving licence is expected. Cars represent freedom and status, and the cost is treated as a normal household expense. Even frequent bus services are unlikely to change that. Some argue service cuts caused this shift, but a private company would not reduce a profitable operation, it simply would not make sense.
At the same time, bus operating costs have risen, while second hand cars remain relatively affordable. In most cases, the desire to own a car outweighs cost considerations.
Buses are also stuck in the same traffic as cars, and there is little political appetite to restrict car use in town centres. So there is very little to make buses a better option. Franchising will not change that, journey times and delays will remain, and cars are unaffected by who runs the buses.
While services have reduced, private operators have largely responded to falling demand. A local authority would likely be slower to react, while still needing additional funding behind the scenes (this is then perceived as by the public or even politically spouted as "doing the right thing by maintaining these services for the small numbers who use them").
Buses will always have a role, but as usage declines, maintaining current service levels becomes unsustainable. Franchising is unlikely to be viable long term without ongoing public subsidy. As more areas adopt it, government support will be stretched, meaning either local taxes or similar service reductions. It will not work out. Companies who run buses now, may show millions of profit in their accounts, but if you dig deeper, Arriva for example make most of their money from European franchised markets, not UK Bus. However, politicians and public are seduced by the top number and assume its their to be had.
Local authorities would be better focusing on supporting the edges of the network and making changes that genuinely encourage bus use. Instead, it remains an emotive, vote winning issue. Bus operators these days are happy to take franchising, as they guarantee a profit margin and focus on the operation.
Give it 10 to 15 years and many will be saying “I told you so.”
How much of that is due to operators failing to adapt routes and schedules to reflect demand, journeys, and travel patterns though?
I live around about 4 miles from my workplace. In the morning I can use two buses, operated by separate companies, which get me to work within around 50 minutes of leaving the house. Driving to the nearest interchange, paying £1.50 to park, and walking for 15 minutes gets me to work in 30 minutes. In the evening, the two buses I need to use on the way to work do not connect - so by bus I would need to go via Newcastle. Traffic dependent, I can therefore drive home and be on my sofa before I'd even be on a bus out of Newcastle.
I won't be alone in having the above situation. I'd much rather use the bus, it means I don't have any dead time sat in traffic, but the bus means nearly an extra hour per day commuting - for a journey of 4(ish) miles! There are so many places in the NE where people will be without any usable connection between their home and major hubs. If, like me, a connection does exist it is often scheduled in such a way that doesn't work around a workday.
On younger people preferring to drive, for sure they might prefer that and during the week that (as per above) might be their only realistic option. But then on a weekend, or in an evening, the bus service is that poor that most people don't even consider it as an option - taxis or asking for a lift are the first choice, maybe a Metro if they live on the route. Given that all routes in the region are Newcastle centric, that is an extremely poor place to have left the perception of the network in.
I'm absolutely convinced that this is a result of having people running the show who never use the product, think that travel patterns are exactly how they were 40 years ago, and that have zero ability to think even slightly outside of the box.