(27 Aug 2026, 6:28 pm)Superman wrote They can’t be doing too badly in Northumberland, considering it’s now allegedly the most profitable entity in the North East. Whether the decision was agreed with or not, closing their Newcastle depot, keeping the profitable stuff and running from two sites seems to have turned that part of the business around. I hear rumours of profit margins of over 30% (even now, with the NL fully established).
Arriva have reported in NEMSA EP minutes that the train service actually hasn’t hurt their express network as much as people think it has. In fact, it’s more likely that it has taken cars off the road, as their services haven’t seen the hit everyone expected them to. It would be interesting to see a survey to evidence that position.
I know the X21/X22 were recently reduced, but that now aligns them to a 15-minute headway, alongside the X10/X11 and the Morpeth corridor. Looking further afield, almost all of their 10-minute headways are now 15 minutes. I don’t think the X21/X22 reduction is anything to do with the Northumberland Line; I think it was a tried-and-tested, minimal-impact decision based on what happened elsewhere, but with a huge cost saving. The 35 is now up to that “what appears to be” 15-minute frequency sweet spot.
Either way, for most of the intermediate locations on routes in SE Northumberland, the bus is still faster into town overall compared to travelling to the station (likely on the same bus) and waiting for the train. The risk of not even being able to board it, followed by being dropped off a good way away from the shops and other higher-draw destinations, still means the bus remains the key mode for the majority who used it and still will.
As poor as their operation has been, I suspect they are secretly sitting on massive margins these days in most locations, and the closure of Redcar is likely the final step in creating a highly profitable region. It’s no surprise that they got around 120 new vehicles this year. Putting two and two together suggests the region is doing well to have that level of capital expenditure being spent on it.
Like them, loathe them, agree or disagree, and performance stats aside, if the numbers are where I think they are, then financially they are clearly doing at least one thing right.
In fairness, it's not too much of a surprise really for the area as a whole. The 43/44/45, X14/X15/X16/X18/777 are goldmine routes really and the bits of them which aren't profitable are funded by the tax payer anyway, not to mention the Coast Road but let's not go there. The fact they've got the investment and everything else is running around with sheds probably backs that up a bit really.
Agreed with the survey, personally I can't see how the trains haven't impacted them a bit though; the X7 runs around here dead nowadays. Now whether it's picking people further down the line because of the cheaper fares, new housing, the loss of the 52/53/54 and Stagecoach making a complete dogs bollocks of the X63 at Quorum is counteracting it then who knows, it would make sense really but the few times I have used it, it seemed a bit busier - especially with Quorum workers which naturally is a biggie as it's a counter flow to the peak.
The X21/X22 who knows, don't want to speculate there too much tbf but it's had a huge capacity reduction since it's running around with singles most the time never mind just the the frequency reduction, 10 year ago it couldn't cope with them on a 20 minute frequency so people have gone somewhere.