Would the CMA have an issue with GNE buying back the routes they sold to Arriva when they got rid of Bishop? As far as I know, it was a one way deal as in GNE didn't get any routes in return like they did when they swapped Hexham.

Which services were actually involved in that deal? I can't find any information about it online

(30 Sep 2020, 8:59 pm)L469 YVK wrote 1 & 2 would be Stagecoach as they're Blyth routes. Agree with what you're saying but would the CMA agree after the red meat fiasco?

My mistake with the 1 and 2 in Blyth. Can't see a big issue with Blyth and Ashington they don't really compete with GNE or Stagecoach anyway as it is tbh but obviously it'll be easier having someone else outside the area. Jesmond I suppose GNE could say they're competing against Stagecoach in the Killingworth / Gosforth areas, Stagecoach could say they're offering competition in North Tyneside but I'd prefer to have the big 3 rather than the big 2, lack of competition never ends well.

Having Stagecoach and GNE together never seems to go too well, Sunderland is suffering quite badly lately as combined they both just can't get it to work and the changes aren't positive most the time and neither of them particularly have an impressive fleet, it's pretty much become GNE's dumping ground for Citaros they can't use anywhere else.

I'd imagine there'd be competition issues with either Stagecoach or GAG if they were to look into taking over any ANE depots - though Stagecoach probably less so. 

Aside from Stagecoach and GAG, the only real contender would be Transdev. First are in an even worse position than Arriva, I don't see NatEx wanting any and below that I doubt anyone would be an improvement on the current regime. 

Honestly, I wouldn't mind Stagecoach coming into Northumberland. They know how to procure appropriate vehicles for express routes, they have a smart and professional brand and have a higher base standard than most other companies. Aside from that Transdev, with a similar approach to Blazefield, would also be interesting.

(30 Sep 2020, 7:05 pm)Driver9*** wrote I can't see GNE or Stagecoach wanting the Arriva operations. The only depot making any kind of profit was Blyth, Ashington barely broke even and Jesmond has been a loss maker for years, add in covid and it becomes even less attractive.

2018 accounts for Northumbria reported a £1.2m profit after tax, so I highly doubt that only Blyth was making "any kind of profit". Most recent accounts for GNE have their profit at £2.8m after tax - so there's not a huge difference (when we take into account that that's only half of ANEs accounts).

Equally, you say that Ashington barely broke even - that'll be why they have (by far) the newest fleet out of the three depots then...

(30 Sep 2020, 9:45 pm)mb134 wrote I'd imagine there'd be competition issues with either Stagecoach or GAG if they were to look into taking over any ANE depots - though Stagecoach probably less so. 

Aside from Stagecoach and GAG, the only real contender would be Transdev. First are in an even worse position than Arriva, I don't see NatEx wanting any and below that I doubt anyone would be an improvement on the current regime. 

Honestly, I wouldn't mind Stagecoach coming into Northumberland. They know how to procure appropriate vehicles for express routes, they have a smart and professional brand and have a higher base standard than most other companies. Aside from that Transdev, with a similar approach to Blazefield, would also be interesting.

You could always see someone not currently in the UK domestic market taking a punt either tho; Abellio, RATP or ComfortDelGro (Metroline) being three that could easily have a go if they fancied taking on a larger bus company taking on the whole network rather than parts of it with the bonus of getting some more bus contracts in London and some train services throughout Europe. Not sure they'd be too keen with Covid lingering around though.

(30 Sep 2020, 9:56 pm)mb134 wrote 2018 accounts for Northumbria reported a £1.2m profit after tax, so I highly doubt that only Blyth was making "any kind of profit". Most recent accounts for GNE have their profit at £2.8m after tax - so there's not a huge difference (when we take into account that that's only half of ANEs accounts).

Equally, you say that Ashington barely broke even - that'll be why they have (by far) the newest fleet out of the three depots then...

With GNE, you also have to take into account that they've actually made investments in the fleet and built a new depot, so that would take up some of their profits

The fact that Arriva have made little to no investment, and only made £1.2 million in profit is quite worrying.
That's only averaging just over £3,000 profit per day
Or about £18 per vehicle per day (assuming I got my maths right!)

(30 Sep 2020, 10:02 pm)streetdeckfan wrote With GNE, you also have to take into account that they've actually made investments in the fleet and built a new depot, so that would take up some of their profits

The fact that Arriva have made little to no investment, and only made £1.2 million in profit is quite worrying.
That's only averaging just over £3,000 profit per day
Or about £18 per vehicle per day (assuming I got my maths right!)

Investments don't affect profits or losses. Just saying.

(30 Sep 2020, 10:02 pm)streetdeckfan wrote With GNE, you also have to take into account that they've actually made investments in the fleet and built a new depot, so that would take up some of their profits

The fact that Arriva have made little to no investment, and only made £1.2 million in profit is quite worrying.
That's only averaging just over £3,000 profit per day
Or about £18 per vehicle per day (assuming I got my maths right!)

My point was more that they are making money, not "barely breaking even".

(30 Sep 2020, 10:11 pm)Storx wrote Investments don't affect profits or losses. Just saying.

But aren't the vehicles purchased by the group rather than GNE themselves and then 'leased' so would go down as an expense?

(30 Sep 2020, 10:14 pm)streetdeckfan wrote But aren't the vehicles purchased by the group rather than GNE themselves and then 'leased' so would go down as an expense?

Would think they'd be on some sort of contract plan with GAG. Essentially like a PCP/HP on steroids - so money out would probably be over the expected lifespan of the bus, paid monthly(?) to group?

(30 Sep 2020, 10:14 pm)streetdeckfan wrote But aren't the vehicles purchased by the group rather than GNE themselves and then 'leased' so would go down as an expense?

Not too sure how GNE account it tbh, but if you bought the bus outright you'd just charge depreciation instead which would be the same or thereabouts as the lease their paying. Be very surprised if Arriva have depreciated anything down to 0 yet bar maybe the ex London Deckers and MPD's but then again that would be the same for GNE with their ex London deckers and possibly the Omnidekkas. I believe that'll be reason why Arriva has a tendency to dump withdrawn buses at the back of a yard somewhere and let them rot rather than selling them off way below book value and taking a massive hit there and then.

I'm assuming it'll be 15 years depreciation for deckers and singles then 12 year for minis though.

Technically you can make a profit from investments if they can sell the bus more than what it's depreciated value is (or a loss if it's lower) so if anything it could actually go up slightly for the money they're gaining from the sales of the old stuff they're binning off.

(30 Sep 2020, 10:19 pm)mb134 wrote Would think they'd be on some sort of contract plan with GAG. Essentially like a PCP/HP on steroids - so money out would probably be over the expected lifespan of the bus, paid monthly(?) to group?

Even still, the monthly repayments on all the new vehicles is going to cost a fair whack considering they cost the best part of £250,000 each.

(30 Sep 2020, 9:11 pm)streetdeckfan wrote Would the CMA have an issue with GNE buying back the routes they sold to Arriva when they got rid of Bishop? As far as I know, it was a one way deal as in GNE didn't get any routes in return like they did when they swapped Hexham.

Which services were actually involved in that deal? I can't find any information about it online

All the local routes in the Bishop Auckland area that were operated from the former OK depot there - CMA decided there was nothing to investigate

https://www.gov.uk/cma-cases/arriva-durh...-group-plc

This situation just needs a forum member with £££££££'s and who lives in ArrivaLand.

(30 Sep 2020, 10:56 pm)ASX_Terranova wrote This situation just needs a forum member with £££££££'s and who lives in ArrivaLand.

I've got a better idea: regionwide bus franchising (I duck and cover).

There are lots of assumptions with very little evidence with regard to Arriva above

To me it looks like the only operator to be still running reduced services are GNE. They have a surplus of buses (and drivers) due to the loss of contracts.
They heavily invested in new buses before the pandemic hit. They have had to invent a coaching division as they have a surplus of unwanted NatEx coaches that they couldn’t hope to sell at a reasonable price. And as the NatEx network is still not up and running fully those coaches Are also lying idle..

Yet you think they are in a position to buy Arriva Northumbria?

(01 Oct 2020, 2:14 am)Bazza wrote There are lots of assumptions with very little evidence with regard to Arriva above 

To me it looks like the only operator to be still running reduced services are GNE.    They have a surplus of buses (and drivers) due to the loss of contracts.
They heavily invested in new buses before the pandemic hit. They have had to invent a coaching division as they have a surplus of unwanted NatEx coaches that they couldn’t hope to sell at a reasonable price.  And as the NatEx network is still not up and running fully  those coaches Are also lying idle..

Yet you think they are in a position to buy Arriva Northumbria?

There not, but is anyone actually in a decent state given the pandemic.

As DB is a German company and Germany seem to be fairing much better than the UK I would suggest that they are probably in the strongest position of all the big operators.

(30 Sep 2020, 10:11 pm)mb134 wrote My point was more that they are making money, not "barely breaking even".

Lol lets see how much money any potential buyers of Arriva make when faced with replacing all the clapped out shite at Blyth and Jesmond

(01 Oct 2020, 2:28 pm)Bazza wrote As DB is a German company and Germany seem to be fairing much better than the UK I would suggest that they are probably in the strongest position of all the big operators.

I mean, considering they're wholly owned by the German Government, I wouldn't disagree with you there!

The issue is DB aren't investing in Arriva, the seem to be doing the usual tactic of sucking as much money out of them as possible to then dump them on someone else when there isn't anything else to gain from them.

It's all well and good having a basically infinite pot of money but if they aren't willing to spend it, the only way is down.

Plus, just because the parent company is in a relatively good financial position doesn't mean Arriva can't go tits up

Some of you on here are really blinded by shiny new things mind so much Arriva hate on here just because they don't buy new buses all the time. I might be different but personally I'd rather sit on a 10 year old bus (which is not old and doesn't need replacing) rather than sitting on a Gateshead Central Taxi service because my local company doesn't fancy running the service at night or having to use a taxi because my service just disappeared over night. Just looking at North of the Tyne on an Arriva vs Stagecoach vs GNE level.

I can't name one cut in the past 5 years between both Arriva and Stagecoach (admit I don't follow Stagecoach so might be something there with the 18/32/32A that's changed believe they were within 5 years) but can name some improvements. X30 direct to Blyth, 57A on Sundays, X24 direct to Sunderland, 22 extension to Cobalt, 1 extension to Cobalt etc.

Then there's GNE; 5 no longer through the tunnel,309 cut to 20 minutes, 310 cut to 20 minutes, 58 scrapped (no link to Gateshead), 1 cut to 20 minutes, 42 abandoned East of Wallsend, 40/41 butchered in half. 11/19/40/41/42 served by Gateshead Taxis in the evening. Improvements 19 evening 3 runs from Cobalt.

Arriva really aren't that bad; First is a bad company who've just shut depots down recently as they just don't fancy them anymore leaving places completely abandoned. I really don't think Arriva Northumbria will struggle to sell any of their depots regardless to the vehicles they have there heck Go Ahead just bought a depot in Manchester (GoNorthWest) from First which was an absolute basket case and inherited an ancient fleet from there - someone would be interested. Arriva's problem areas are down south in the Medway and Midlands where the fleet really is getting old and they'll be the ones they'll struggle to shift imo.

Just to add in their last accounts:
Arriva Midlands: 80k Profit
Arriva Midlands North: 2.86m Loss
Arriva Kent and Surrey: 2.32m Loss

Whereas we're I believe Arriva's strongest area:
Arriva Durham County: 4.429m Profit
Arriva Northumbria: 1.50m Profit
Arriva Yorkshire: 4.41m Profit

which is higher than GNE.

(01 Oct 2020, 5:42 pm)Storx wrote Some of you on here are really blinded by shiny new things mind so much Arriva hate on here just because they don't buy new buses all the time. I might be different but personally I'd rather sit on a 10 year old bus (which is not old and doesn't need replacing) rather than sitting on a Gateshead Central Taxi service because my local company doesn't fancy running the service at night or having to use a taxi because my service just disappeared over night. Just looking at North of the Tyne on an Arriva vs Stagecoach vs GNE level.

I can't name one cut in the past 5 years between both Arriva and Stagecoach (admit I don't follow Stagecoach so might be something there with the 18/32/32A that's changed believe they were within 5 years) but can name some improvements. X30 direct to Blyth, 57A on Sundays, X24 direct to Sunderland, 22 extension to Cobalt, 1 extension to Cobalt etc.

Then there's GNE; 5 no longer through the tunnel,309 cut to 20 minutes, 310 cut to 20 minutes, 58 scrapped (no link to Gateshead), 1 cut to 20 minutes, 42 abandoned East of Wallsend, 40/41 butchered in half. 11/19/40/41/42 served by Gateshead Taxis in the evening. Improvements 19 evening 3 runs from Cobalt.

Arriva really aren't that bad; First is a bad company who've just shut depots down recently as they just don't fancy them anymore leaving places completely abandoned. I really don't think Arriva Northumbria will struggle to sell any of their depots regardless to the vehicles they have there heck Go Ahead just bought a depot in Manchester (GoNorthWest) from First which was an absolute basket case and inherited an ancient fleet from there - someone would be interested. Arriva's problem areas are down south in the Medway and Midlands where the fleet really is getting old and they'll be the ones they'll struggle to shift imo.

Just to add in their last accounts:
Arriva Midlands: 80k Profit
Arriva Midlands North: 2.86m Loss
Arriva Kent and Surrey: 2.32m Loss

Whereas we're I believe Arriva's strongest area:
Arriva Durham County: 4.429m Profit
Arriva Northumbria: 1.50m Profit
Arriva Yorkshire: 4.41m Profit

which is higher than GNE.

I think the issue with GCT operating GNE evening services isn't that GNE have 'cut' them, more that GCT have massively undercut GNE in their bid to operate them.
Granted, you could say "Well, GNE should just operate them commercially", but then they'd have to make cut backs elsewhere to make up for the loss they'd make running them.

(01 Oct 2020, 6:05 pm)streetdeckfan wrote I think the issue with GCT operating GNE evening services isn't that GNE have 'cut' them, more that GCT have massively undercut GNE in their bid to operate them.
Granted, you could say "Well, GNE should just operate them commercially", but then they'd have to make cut backs elsewhere to make up for the loss they'd make running them.

The thing is though from a normal passenger that's what it looks like. The dangerous game your playing now is oh the bus doesn't run at nights well I'm not using the bus then screw that then the day time service suddenly makes a loss. That small loss you made for running 5 or 6 runs probably doesn't look so bad in the end. Oh and it was a comparison between Arriva and GNE, somehow Arriva can make the 51, 53 and 54 work in the evenings yet GNE can't. Greed or luck, I'll let you decide that one but the 42 and 53 are very similar routes and serve similar areas.

(01 Oct 2020, 6:29 pm)Storx wrote The thing is though from a normal passenger that's what it looks like. The dangerous game your playing now is oh the bus doesn't run at nights well I'm not using the bus then screw that then the day time service suddenly makes a loss. That small loss you made for running 5 or 6 runs probably doesn't look so bad in the end. Oh and it was a comparison between Arriva and GNE, somehow Arriva can make the 51, 53 and 54 work in the evenings yet GNE can't. Greed or luck, I'll let you decide that one.

How long have the evening routes been subsidised though?

(01 Oct 2020, 6:30 pm)streetdeckfan wrote How long have the evening routes been subsidised though?

The 343/344 (53), 355 (51), 356 (54) and 810 (57) used to be subsidised aswell but I'm guessing Arriva would rather run there services themselves now rather that putting it in random pot for GCT or whoeever to pick up. Over the past 15 years Arriva's services are roughly the same whereas GNE are a fraction of thereselves.

https://web.archive.org/web/200609270930...+Full+List - If you load any of them from 2006 on there they all have the secured by Nexus and/or Northumberland County Council. None of them are now.

(01 Oct 2020, 5:42 pm)Storx wrote Then there's GNE; 5 no longer through the tunnel,309 cut to 20 minutes, 310 cut to 20 minutes, 58 scrapped (no link to Gateshead), 1 cut to 20 minutes, 42 abandoned East of Wallsend, 40/41 butchered in half. 11/19/40/41/42 served by Gateshead Taxis in the evening. Improvements 19 evening 3 runs from Cobalt.

And no surprise given the fact that they had the opportunity to streamline the 3x services at the time (57/309/310) and take out the one that was carrying the most fresh air. 

Arriva will likely follow suit with the 306 & 308 when social distancing rules allow meaning a 20 min service on both and the 306 removed from Battle Hill. Gone are the glory days of water leaks in the Cityzens (not the buses of course)! If the Blyth to Rake Lane corridor was that profitable, then why would GNE (despite running at the time minutes ahead of the 308) jeopardise their position to reduce the 309's frequency?

(01 Oct 2020, 7:13 pm)L469 YVK wrote And no surprise given the fact that they had the opportunity to streamline the 3x services at the time (57/309/310) and take out the one that was carrying the most fresh air. 

Arriva will likely follow suit with the 306 & 308 when social distancing rules allow meaning a 20 min service on both and the 306 removed from Battle Hill. Gone are the glory days of water leaks in the Cityzens (not the buses of course)! If the Blyth to Rake Lane corridor was that profitable, then why would GNE (despite running at the time minutes ahead of the 308) jeopardise their position to reduce the 309's frequency?

Possibly people are choosing the 308 as they get more value from an Arriva day ticket with more places to go possibly with a change.

From Seaton Sluice, you've got direct buses to Blyth, Cramlington (infrequent but it's there), Delaval, Newcastle (x2), Whitley, Silverlink, Quorum. Then with a change you've got Cramlington (very frequent), Ashington, Morpeth, Bedlington, North Shields, Tynemouth, Killingworth, Backworth.

GNE you've got Blyth, Whitley, Cobalt, Newcastle direct with a change Wallsend, Tynemouth and Shields and that's about it in the local area anyway.

But on that point not too sure, maybe Arriva putting their services before profits and are happy with a break even or a small profit with other routes topping up the money. Something GNE can't really do in North Tyneside as the rest of their routes there are quite weak bar the 1 and the profits from that probably are lost on the weak western end to the Metro Centre. It's the same with the 1 and 2 at Blyth, really surprised there still every 20 minutes with minibuses rather than every 30 with full size singles - they must have there reasoning behind it tbh. I genuinely don't see Arriva dropping the frequency though as they don't really cut stuff everything in Northumbria has been pretty stable for 10 year or so now.

(01 Oct 2020, 7:30 pm)Storx wrote It's the same with the 1 and 2 at Blyth, really surprised there still every 20 minutes with minibuses rather than every 30 with full size singles - they must have there reasoning behind it tbh. I genuinely don't see Arriva dropping the frequency though as they don't really cut stuff everything in Northumbria has been pretty stable for 10 year or so now.

Think with the 1 and 2 there are lots of people doing small hops, rather than Blyth to Morpeth/Ashington (though there are also a decent enough number of those). Virtually every time I see a 1 in Ashington, there's a decent enough load - similar with the 2 in Morpeth and Bedlington. They are likely routes that make a small profit overall, so Arriva would probably prefer to keep it as it is than cut the frequency and run the risk of losing punters. For all they get (generally justified) criticism for some aspects, Arriva certainly seem to put more effort into these smaller local routes than other operators.

Nexus even runs the some stagecoach routes that don't make money but I think stagecoach for the most part try and bid for the routes

(01 Oct 2020, 4:45 pm)streetdeckfan wrote I mean, considering they're wholly owned by the German Government, I wouldn't disagree with you there!

The issue is DB aren't investing in Arriva, the seem to be doing the usual tactic of sucking as much money out of them as possible to then dump them on someone else when there isn't anything else to gain from them.

It's all well and good having a basically infinite pot of money but if they aren't willing to spend it, the only way is down.

Plus, just because the parent company is in a relatively good financial position doesn't mean Arriva can't go tits up

You’re missing the point.    Arriva seem to be an easy target on here.  The negativity for them is astounding, only matched by the impression  that GNE can do no wrong.   I made a couple of points earlier on in this thread and was surprised nobody picked up on them.  Either nobody disagreed with what I said or the points that I made were widely off the mark. Which was it?    

As to the comments quoted above, where is the evidence that DB are sucking Arriva dry?  If it’s your opinion, then say so, or provide the evidence,  don’t just make a statement purporting it to be a fact.