(12 Aug 2023, 11:29 am)Bazza wrote Would an asset stripping venture capital group be a better option?

The way GoAhead has been going on since the takeover locally, you could argue it is one.

They're doing everything a stripping venture capital group would do.

(12 Aug 2023, 11:52 am)Storx wrote The way GoAhead has been going on since the takeover locally, you could argue it is one.

They're doing everything a stripping venture capital group would do.

Is that an argument for or against GNE?

(12 Aug 2023, 10:23 am)Bazza wrote You’d think that if a deal was on the cards the shedding of those routes would be accounted for or even a pre requisite of the deal. 

I’m led to believe the the Northumbria division is one of the better performing parts, so I don’t know why it couldn’t or wouldn’t be bought alone

Realistically though if it is one of the better performing divisions, and DB want to sell as a whole package, then they're probably not going to sell it individually as it would weaken the group as a whole - and so DB would find it even harder to get a buyer?

On the First Group rumours, as someone who has lived in a city predominantly served by First and looking back on how they operated the services, I'd take Arriva running my local services over them in a heartbeat.

(12 Aug 2023, 1:14 pm)L469 YVK wrote Could this not be down to GNE buying heavy duty buses such as B9TLs between 2011-2015? Bit like Arriva Northumbria who had Cityzens and Palatine II's worked like dogs from around 1996/97 until between 2019-2012 when withdrawn.

It's more singles that's the problem more than the Deckers to be fair. There's probably an argument whether some of the Gateshead buses with the ex London Deckers need deckers at all and it's more of a we've got no buses to put on there, these will do scenario.

The Versa's are rubbish though and Streetlite's are well Streetlite's. There's been very little investment in singles since 2017 really other than the Voltra's and E200 MMC's which are arguably without a route atm. 

Mind that said the Cityzen's got withdrawn early as they were absolute sheds, good engine terrible body work. These 'new' ex London Decker's would be the equivilent age of when those were withdrawn.

(12 Aug 2023, 1:38 pm)Storx wrote It's more singles that's the problem more than the Deckers to be fair. There's probably an argument whether some of the Gateshead buses with the ex London Deckers need deckers at all and it's more of a we've got no buses to put on there, these will do scenario.

The Versa's are rubbish though and Streetlite's are well Streetlite's. There's been very little investment in singles since 2017 really other than the Voltra's and E200 MMC's which are arguably without a route atm. 

Mind that said the Cityzen's got withdrawn early as they were absolute sheds, good engine terrible body work. These 'new' ex London Decker's would be the equivilent age of when those were withdrawn.

The Cityzens make a Streetlite/deck look like the pinnacle of quality and engineering. I dread to think how they would have performed if they were involved in a serious accident.

(19 Jul 2023, 1:18 pm)Bazza wrote Does the current uncertainty over the effect the election of a new North East Mayor will have on the provision of bus services in the area make the sale of Arriva Northumbria in the short term unlikely, or could a possible bidder see it as an opportunity worth a punt?

That is part of the 'problem', although it should be pretty clear where the direction of travel in terms of regulation is heading.

I very much doubt, like the botched QCS, ARRIVA would keep control of their lucrative express services into Tyne and Wear, at least commercially

So, I see them hanging on until whatever new possible framework exists and then bailing.

(13 Aug 2023, 6:47 am)DeltaMan wrote That is part of the 'problem', although it should be pretty clear where the direction of travel in terms of regulation is heading.

I very much doubt, like the botched QCS, ARRIVA would keep control of their lucrative express services into Tyne and Wear, at least commercially

So, I see them hanging on until whatever new possible framework exists and then bailing.

If a new mayor takes control of routes is there any compensation paid to the operators currently running them commercially?  What has happened in Manchester?

(13 Aug 2023, 6:47 am)DeltaMan wrote That is part of the 'problem', although it should be pretty clear where the direction of travel in terms of regulation is heading.

I very much doubt, like the botched QCS, ARRIVA would keep control of their lucrative express services into Tyne and Wear, at least commercially 

So, I see them hanging on until whatever new possible framework exists and then bailing.

I'd not be surprised to see this and the 53/54 behaviour continue to be honest.
Whittle away at the stuff that doesn't work commercially or operationally and you're left with the core network that does both. In the interim anyway. 

Then and only then, will we see the likes of SNE/GNE stepping in and plugging/filling/exploiting the gaps. Potentially with Nexus help.

(13 Aug 2023, 2:20 pm)Andreos1 wrote I'd not be surprised to see this and the 53/54 behaviour continue to be honest.
Whittle away at the stuff that doesn't work commercially or operationally and you're left with the core network that does both. In the interim anyway. 

Then and only then, will we see the likes of SNE/GNE stepping in and plugging/filling/exploiting the gaps. Potentially with Nexus help.

Which is a good thing in the short term. But I just can't see ARRIVA sticking around until whatever happens with the Mayor comes to pass, not until they are divorced from all German decision making anyway.

I suppose the 'good' news is that I can't see much else to trim back, although I would be worried about anything north of Alnwick, certainly during the Winter. 

I hope TNE and NEXUS have deep pockets!

(13 Aug 2023, 4:49 pm)DeltaMan wrote Which is a good thing in the short term. But I just can't see ARRIVA sticking around until whatever happens with the Mayor comes to pass, not until they are divorced from all German decision making anyway.

I suppose the 'good' news is that I can't see much else to trim back, although I would be worried about anything north of Alnwick, certainly during the Winter. 

I hope TNE and NEXUS have deep pockets!

It's already subsidised by Northumberland CC anyway as far I'm aware.

(13 Aug 2023, 4:49 pm)DeltaMan wrote Which is a good thing in the short term. But I just can't see ARRIVA sticking around until whatever happens with the Mayor comes to pass, not until they are divorced from all German decision making anyway.

I suppose the 'good' news is that I can't see much else to trim back, although I would be worried about anything north of Alnwick, certainly during the Winter. 

I hope TNE and NEXUS have deep pockets!

Nexus? Deep pockets? from what I heard they are losing money right left and centre!

Mod note: A number of off-topic posts (relating to GNE's fleet) have been moved to a more appropriate thread: State Of The Fleet

How about lothian taking over northumbria - give both GNE and SCNE a run for there money!

(15 Aug 2023, 8:04 am)Rob44 wrote How about lothian taking over northumbria - give both GNE and SCNE a run for there money!

Now we are getting into fantasy land


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(15 Aug 2023, 8:08 am)tyresmoke wrote Now we are getting into fantasy land


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Why? Arnt they sitting on piles of cash due to been run so much more efficiently than the big3 down here?? Also must make a fortune from the " no change given" rule!

(15 Aug 2023, 10:32 am)Rob44 wrote Why? Arnt they sitting on piles of cash due to been run so much more efficiently than the big3 down here?? Also must make a fortune from the " no change given" rule!

First Aberdeen don't give change either, but I don't think they're in much of a position to commit to a cross-border takeover.

(15 Aug 2023, 10:32 am)Rob44 wrote Why? Arnt they sitting on piles of cash due to been run so much more efficiently than the big3 down here?? Also must make a fortune from the " no change given" rule!

They're wholly owned by Local Authorities in the area. I'm not sure that any local authority could justify setting up operation miles away from home, to compete with existing operations.

The other thing is that they're not allowed to. Local authorities are banned from setting up new bus companies or buying existing ones.

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(15 Aug 2023, 12:15 pm)Adrian wrote They're wholly owned by Local Authorities in the area. I'm not sure that any local authority could justify setting up operation miles away from home, to compete with existing operations.

The other thing is that they're not allowed to. Local authorities are banned from setting up new bus companies or buying existing ones.

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Yes I knew that but don't they run services towards Berwick??  Where's the nearest First depot to here?  leeds/yorK  about same distance

There are ways and mean to do thing. They could set up a arms length service to be run as a private company??? My local NHs runs a private company so when no a council.

Anyway if is not allowed how about first?  Just please not SCNE or GNE.

(15 Aug 2023, 2:55 pm)Rob44 wrote Yes I knew that but don't they run services towards Berwick??  Where's the nearest First depot to here?  leeds/yorK  about same distance

There are ways and mean to do thing. They could set up a arms length service to be run as a private company??? My local NHs runs a private company so when no a council.

Anyway if is not allowed how about first?  Just please not SCNE or GNE.

It's a restriction in England, which is why Lothian were able to setup EastCoastBuses (in Scotland), for example, to counter First pulling out of East Lothian completely.

EastCoastBuses run furthest East in Lothian's network, and I think you'll be referring to North Berwick, not Berwick. Some 45 miles apart, and in different Countries.

The Act bans a defined 'relevant authority', which is detailed in Section 22 of the Buses Act 2017:

(15 Aug 2023, 2:55 pm)Rob44 wrote Yes I knew that but don't they run services towards Berwick??  Where's the nearest First depot to here?  leeds/yorK  about same distance

There are ways and mean to do thing. They could set up a arms length service to be run as a private company??? My local NHs runs a private company so when no a council.

Anyway if is not allowed how about first?  Just please not SCNE or GNE.

You REALLY don't want First .....!

(15 Aug 2023, 2:55 pm)Rob44 wrote Yes I knew that but don't they run services towards Berwick??  Where's the nearest First depot to here?  leeds/yorK  about same distance

There are ways and mean to do thing. They could set up a arms length service to be run as a private company??? My local NHs runs a private company so when no a council.

Anyway if is not allowed how about first?  Just please not SCNE or GNE.

First are a terrible company. They're known as Worst Group for a reason. 

They're pulling of places though everywhere. Plenty better companies around, Wellglade, Rotala (Diamond) and McGills to name three, whether they want to expand the size of Arriva, who knows.

(16 Aug 2023, 7:10 am)Storx wrote First are a terrible company. They're known as Worst Group for a reason. 

They're pulling of places though everywhere. Plenty better companies around, Wellglade, Rotala (Diamond) and McGills to name three, whether they want to expand the size of Arriva, who knows.

To be honest First were given that nickname years ago but their operations have generally improved massively over the last 5 or so years.
There are still some where money is tight (SYorks/Potteries) but many are doing very well, York & Leeds are decent and Kernow has had huge amounts of cash thrown at it recently.

Wellglade I’d disagree with, they’ve really lost their way since Covid and really struggled with staff retention and outside Trent looks like an absolute shambles

To be quite honest I don’t see a group moving in and it’ll likely fall to independents to pick up a lot of what will be left when the inevitable closure happens in a few years.


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(16 Aug 2023, 7:10 am)Storx wrote First are a terrible company. They're known as Worst Group for a reason. 

They're pulling of places though everywhere. Plenty better companies around, Wellglade, Rotala (Diamond) and McGills to name three, whether they want to expand the size of Arriva, who knows.

No, you really don't want Rotala, even worse than First!

One of their operation in the north west had a couple of vehicles allegedly lose wheels while out in service.

Their former operation in Bristol was sold to Stagecoach, along with nine vehicles.  Of those nine, six took at least a year to get up to a basic level of serviceability to be allowed to enter service.  The other three were deemed to be too knackered to even be worth working on, and were scrapped.  ALL had been in service with Rotala the day before they were handed to Stagecoach .....

(16 Aug 2023, 7:17 am)tyresmoke wrote To be honest First were given that nickname years ago but their operations have generally improved massively over the last 5 or so years.
There are still some where money is tight (SYorks/Potteries) but many are doing very well, York & Leeds are decent and Kernow has had huge amounts of cash thrown at it recently.


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Apart from the massive decline in Scotland. First Scotland East is gone, Aberdeen is a shadow of its former self. 

In all honesty, I'd also expect a main operator in Leeds and York to be doing very well so that shouldn't really be a selling point on them being okay!

(16 Aug 2023, 7:17 am)tyresmoke wrote To be honest First were given that nickname years ago but their operations have generally improved massively over the last 5 or so years.
There are still some where money is tight (SYorks/Potteries) but many are doing very well, York & Leeds are decent and Kernow has had huge amounts of cash thrown at it recently.

Wellglade I’d disagree with, they’ve really lost their way since Covid and really struggled with staff retention and outside Trent looks like an absolute shambles

To be quite honest I don’t see a group moving in and it’ll likely fall to independents to pick up a lot of what will be left when the inevitable closure happens in a few years.


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Haven't been following Wellglade much recently so missed that they've got down in the drain, must've followed Transdev Blazefield's steps then which is a right old mess lately. Agree with comments later to be fair about First, some good urban areas but poor outside of it in areas arguably similar here.

If you only looked at Arriva Merseyside they'd look good aswell, it's elsewhere which is naff.

(16 Aug 2023, 8:02 am)Ianthegoon wrote No, you really don't want Rotala, even worse than First!

One of their operation in the north west had a couple of vehicles allegedly lose wheels while out in service.

Their former operation in Bristol was sold to Stagecoach, along with nine vehicles.  Of those nine, six took at least a year to get up to a basic level of serviceability to be allowed to enter service.  The other three were deemed to be too knackered to even be worth working on, and were scrapped.  ALL had been in service with Rotala the day before they were handed to Stagecoach .....

Haven't they really upped their game lately? I know when they first started they were absolutely appalling but seem much better lately with sizeable investments in their fleets.

(16 Aug 2023, 1:01 pm)Storx wrote Re:Rotala

Haven't they really upped their game lately? I know when they first started they were absolutely appalling but seem much better lately with sizeable investments in their fleets.

Given some of the incidents I heard of, I wouldn't be at all surprised to find they got investigated by the Transport Commissioner - they'll either have pulled their socks up, or be rapidly fading.  As they're not doing the latter, i would hope it's because they got a timely shot across the bow!

Didnt three of their buses hit bridges within like a week, I think it was Diamond not sure.

(15 Aug 2023, 8:08 am)tyresmoke wrote Now we are getting into fantasy land


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Perhaps we should add management buyout to the mix too.

(16 Aug 2023, 9:16 pm)solsburian wrote Perhaps we should add management buyout to the mix too.

An interesting proposition.  Not sure how well that ended for Yellow Buses though.

I've just been reading on another forum, Arriva subsidiaries darn sarf have finally started to submit their accounts.  Way overdue.  I've not got the inclination to look at them myself, but there's a suggestion they've written down the value of their fleet to zero.

A sign of movement on the horizon or just accounting smoke and mirrors?

(17 Aug 2023, 11:56 am)Chris 1 wrote An interesting proposition.  Not sure how well that ended for Yellow Buses though.

I've just been reading on another forum, Arriva subsidiaries darn sarf have finally started to submit their accounts.  Way overdue.  I've not got the inclination to look at them myself, but there's a suggestion they've written down the value of their fleet to zero.

A sign of movement on the horizon or just accounting smoke and mirrors?

Yes, the accounts for Northumbria are almost 7 months late now. I'm guessing they are "cooking the books" across all of the divisions.

If they have written down the value of the fleet to zero that is quite an interesting development!