(16 Aug 2021, 7:03 pm)L469 YVK wrote But how did Arriva achieve a profit? Only investment since September 2014 in Northumbria has been 7541-52 and thats it. If Arriva/DB actually replaced the following (based on pre-covid):
- 10x 308 + 1x spare
- 13x X10/X11 + 1x spare
- 10x X15/X18 + 1x spare
That's 36x vehicles and based on a list price of £250,000 (could be more), that's nearly £9M. And........if they spent on the other outlying services too (X7/X8/X9 & X14/X20), that total would increase yet again.
So in short, Arriva have achieved a profit but what's their long term outlook? They're going to need to spend sooner or later and the only way they'll be able to afford to spend will be to reduce PVR's which means cutting services.
GNE do actually have some capacity to grow and funnily enough, Arriva would have big potential with the right investment and strategy going forward.
North Tyneside.........Stagecoach I'd say yes with the 22 but not much bite from Arriva considering GNE's recent investment & changes to the 309/310/311 not forgetting the potential for EV operation if the bid is successful.
Investment doesn't affect profits though. It's all done in the balance sheet which will be depreciated over the lifetime of the bus, so it's still the same for the Gemini's which will be still be getting paid off now every year.
It's more about what routes they've got that's why. Arriva serve close towns in the case of SE Northumberland which are ex pit towns / villages and naturally have a lower car usage with no competition at all. It's how they can get away with what they're doing. It's the same with Stagecoach in the West End running MAN buses around. It's the similar down Durham way with Bishop Auckland, Spennymoor, Shildon etc. The routes are also dead close by so you can serve multiple towns / villages enroute to Newcastle without it being a detour Blyth -> Cramlington -> Newcastle or Ashington -> Bedlington -> Newcastle each with their own flows.
Compare that to GNE, they've got Peterlee, North Tyneside, Sunderland and South Tyneside which are all competition hot spots and argubly they have the weaker routes in the areas, Derwentside is a nightmare to serve as you have two large towns then pretty much nothing inbetween with the complication of either serving the Metro Centre or Newcastle but not both as it's too 'slow' but there's money there. Washington and Peterlee are both very high car usage areas. What's left, Gateshead which is a good area and it shows with multiple 15 minute+ services, no doubt it's where most of the money comes from aswell - notice there's been few cuts there over the years and Hexham / Tyne Valley which are both strong areas - also no cuts there.