Following on from discussion in the "Tender Discussion" thread, I've decided it would be a bit of fun to set up an order predictions thread for 2015, similar to what we have for other operators in the region.

I will post my predictions in a separate post.

I've put together some average fleet ages for each depot in the North East (as attached). It isn't 100% accurate as it's based on year rather than month, and I've not included vehicles which are marked as forming part of the reserve fleet at that depot on our fleet lists.

I think this year's investment will take into consideration that Quality Contracts could come into fruition in Tyne & Wear, meaning that most (if not all?) of Stagecoach's routes will form part of the scheme. Whilst I would love to see more investment in the Busways division (namely Sunderland), I'm doubtful unfortunately.

As Stagecoach in Sunderland received investment two years in a row which drastically reduced the fleet age, I think Stockton will be this year's candidate again:

Stockton Depot

• Services 10/11: 5x ADL Enviro300 - PVR 5
  
• Service 13: 6x ADL Enviro300 - PVR 5
  
• Services 14/34: 7x ADL Enviro300 - PVR 6
  
• Services 35/58: 4x ADL Enviro300 - PVR 4
  
• Services 59/61: 6x ADL Enviro300 - PVR 6

This adds up to a total of 28 ADL Enviro300s, replacing all 28 MAN ALX300s at Stockton.  12x MAN ALX300 would be withdrawn directly (22196 - 22198, 22202/04/10/11, 22469/71/75 and 22671/74), while the remaining 16 would be spread across the fleet as follows:

• 22011/12 replace 22214/15 at Sunderland (Reserve).
  
• 22013/14 replace 22462 and 22735 at Walkergate (Reserve).
  
• 22015/16 replace 22480 and 22675 at Slatyford.
  
• 22017 replaces 22734 at South Shields (Reserve).
  
• 22018/19 replace 22455 and 22667 at Hartlepool (Reserve).
  
• 22020/61-66 replace 22206, 22451/52/54/56/66, 22668 and 22733

All non-DDA compliant MAN ALX300s would be withdrawn as a result.


I do also think that Stagecoach ought to dispose of the Olympians/Tridents at Stockton too, as well as the Open Top Olympians on CitySightseeing duties. Perhaps something like the following:

Slatyford Depot

• Services 62/63: 16x ADL Enviro400(Hybrid?) - PVR 14

This would allow 16 ADL Enviro400s to be replaced: 8x ADL Enviro400s (19141-48) would replace all Olympians/Tridents, 1x ADL Enviro400 (19149) would act as an additional spare vehicle at South Shields for the X34, and 5x ADL Enviro400s (19150-54) would replace the Open Tops. Still two spare - but perhaps services 10/11 and X87/X88 could benefit from two extra spares, and this would allow two DDA-compliant MAN ALX300s to move around to replace something else in the fleet.

(22 Feb 2015, 3:30 pm)Dan wrote I've put together some average fleet ages for each depot in the North East (as attached). It isn't 100% accurate as it's based on year rather than month, and I've not included vehicles which are marked as forming part of the reserve fleet at that depot on our fleet lists.

I think this year's investment will take into consideration that Quality Contracts could come into fruition in Tyne & Wear, meaning that most (if not all?) of Stagecoach's routes will form part of the scheme. Whilst I would love to see more investment in the Busways division (namely Sunderland), I'm doubtful unfortunately.

As Stagecoach in Sunderland received investment two years in a row which drastically reduced the fleet age, I think Stockton will be this year's candidate again:

Stockton Depot

• Services 10/11: 5x ADL Enviro300 - PVR 5
  
  
• Service 13: 6x ADL Enviro300 - PVR 5
  
  
• Services 14/34: 7x ADL Enviro300 - PVR 6
  
  
• Services 35/58: 4x ADL Enviro300 - PVR 4
  
  
• Services 59/61: 6x ADL Enviro300 - PVR 6
  

This adds up to a total of 28 ADL Enviro300s, replacing all 28 MAN ALX300s at Stockton.  12x MAN ALX300 would be withdrawn directly (22196 - 22198, 22202/04/10/11, 22469/71/75 and 22671/74), while the remaining 16 would be spread across the fleet as follows:

• 22011/12 replace 22214/15 at Sunderland (Reserve).
  
• 22013/14 replace 22462 and 22735 at Walkergate (Reserve).
  
• 22015/16 replace 22480 and 22675 at Slatyford.
  
• 22017 replaces 22734 at South Shields (Reserve).
  
• 22018/19 replace 22455 and 22667 at Hartlepool (Reserve).
  
• 22020/61-66 replace 22206, 22451/52/54/56/66, 22668 and 22733
  

All non-DDA compliant MAN ALX300s would be withdrawn as a result.


I do also think that Stagecoach ought to dispose of the Olympians/Tridents at Stockton too, as well as the Open Top Olympians on CitySightseeing duties. Perhaps something like the following:

Slatyford Depot

• Services 62/63: 16x ADL Enviro400(Hybrid?) - PVR 14
  

This would allow 16 ADL Enviro400s to be replaced: 8x ADL Enviro400s (19141-48) would replace all Olympians/Tridents, 1x ADL Enviro400 (19149) would act as an additional spare vehicle at South Shields for the X34, and 5x ADL Enviro400s (19150-54) would replace the Open Tops. Still two spare - but perhaps services 10/11 and X87/X88 could benefit from two extra spares, and this would allow two DDA-compliant MAN ALX300s to move around to replace something else in the fleet.

I would say, that the 12/39 would be the most likely routes to receive investment before 10/11 14/34 58/35 59/61 and 13 in that order. More than likely, the following would happen at Stockton:

• Service 12/39: 17 ADL E300s (Presently PVR 12, minor changes result in PVR 13 + 4 spares)
  
• Service 58/35: 5 ADL E300s (PVR 4)
  
• Service 59/61: 7 ADL E300s (PVR 6)
  

24101-15 would then be allocated to services 14/34 (6) and 10/11 (5) (while also being WiFi fitted) while 22061-6 would be retained for the 13 (5).

(22 Feb 2015, 3:38 pm)Kuyoyo wrote I would say, that the 12/39 would be the most likely routes to receive investment before 10/11 14/34 58/35 59/61 and 13 in that order. More than likely, the following would happen at Stockton:

• Service 12/39: 17 ADL E300s (Presently PVR 12, minor changes result in PVR 13 + 4 spares)
  
• Service 58/35: 5 ADL E300s (PVR 4)
  
• Service 59/61: 7 ADL E300s (PVR 6)
  

24101-15 would then be allocated to services 14/34 (6) and 10/11 (5) (while also being WiFi fitted) while 22061-6 would be retained for the 13 (5).

Ah, our guesses are still fairly close with Stockton getting more-or-less 30 new buses to replace all the non-DDA ALX300s..!  

(22 Feb 2015, 3:42 pm)Dan wrote Ah, our guesses are still fairly close with Stockton getting more-or-less 30 new buses to replace all the non-DDA ALX300s..!  

Stockton certainly will likely be in-line for new stock this year - breaks the normal ducted of waiting 5 years after every investment   

As for Newcastle and deckers, the 62/63 is a joint operation between both Slatyford (14) and Walkergate (7 plus 4 on X63 of which one works onto 62/63 on evenings). So, any investment would be a joint one. Of course, you'd then also want to increase capacity on other Newcastle services before replacing 16834/6 and 17025-9/32 on Macmillan School work at Stockton. X47 for example could justify gaining deckers (especially with all the issues dogging the Metro at present - free WiFi and double deckers on X47 and you'll attract people from the Metro  )

I really like to see more o9 Reg Enviro 300 buses like 24101 there are good buses and it would be nice to see some Enviro 400 at Stockton one day maybe and I like new buses at Stockton too.

South Sheilds
17 ADL Enviro 400MMC ( standard spec with high back seats called lazzerini practico seats )
+3 to replace 19194/6/7 on X34 E300s replace MAN 18.220 03 reg batch at slatyford, 03 reg MANS to disposal or different region or reserve

19194/6/7 transfer to slatyford to replace 3 more MANs to provide more seating on various routes ( 10/11/63/62/X77/8/9/87/88 )

(07 Jun 2015, 5:22 pm)South Tyne Lad wrote South Sheilds
17 ADL Enviro 400MMC ( standard spec with high back seats called lazzerini practico seats )
+3 to replace 19194/6/7 on X34 E300s replace MAN 18.220 03 reg batch at slatyford, 03 reg MANS to disposal or different region or reserve

19194/6/7 transfer to slatyford to replace 3 more MANs to provide more seating on various routes ( 10/11/63/62/X77/8/9/87/88 )

South Shields could do with three more ADL E300s to replace MAN ALX300s 22050/67/70. I assume the MAN ALX300s at Slatyford will eventually be replaced with the larger ADL E200 MMCs, and ADL E400 MMCs could replace the 07/57-reg batch of ADL E400s so they can replace the remaining Olympians and eldest tridents elsewhere in the country - including the ones at Stockton, as well as replace some MAN ALX300s if some routes are converted to double deck.

The smaller ADL E200 MMCs could also replace the Pointer Darts and MAN E200s at Slatyford, to upgrade and improve some of the Nexus services and services 6, 7 and 8 - with the MAN E200s replacing the remaining Pointer Darts at Sunderland.

doubt it with the three enviro 300 for shields. this year will be the last year stagecoach order enviro 300s as ADL confirmed its going to move over to a all euro 6 lineup soon.
and the E300s are not going to be made in euro 6 so production will stop, so probably 22050/67/70 will stay at shields for possibly 1 or 2 more years the rest of it sounds good though.

Is 22017 Coming to South Shields to replace 22734 or is it a rumour. Regards Robin

(17 Jul 2015, 8:37 pm)Robinwtait.19 wrote Is 22017 Coming to South Shields to replace 22734 or is it a rumour. Regards Robin

Though im not 100% sure I think if another MAN 18.220 was to come to Shields it would be a similar number to one based at Shields 22050/67/70 so it could be 22051 for example which if happens it will make its second appearance at Shields having been based there for a few months before moving back to Slatyford.

Apparently a standard ADL E400MMC Hybrid (the replacement for the Euro 5 hybrid ADL E400s) will be entering the market soon, if it hasn't already. I think it would be a good idea for Walkergate to become a mostly hybrid operated depot - which would allow the eldest diesel E400s to replace 16834/6, 17025-8/32 and possibly 14669-71/73-4, as well as other non-DDA decker's around the country.  It would be great if gas powered ADL E200 MMC's are produced as this would allow Sunderland depot to become a 100% gas-powered depot.

16834/6 and 17025-9/32 *might* not need replacing at Stockton come the end of this school year anyway

(14 Sep 2015, 8:01 pm)Kuyoyo wrote 16834/6 and 17025-9/32 *might* not need replacing at Stockton come the end of this school year anyway

I assume that is a hint that Stagecoach may not be renewing the contract for these scholars services - like they did with the SAFC P&R free shuttle services?

(14 Sep 2015, 8:07 pm)AIG20 wrote I assume that is a hint that Stagecoach may not be renewing the contract for these scholars services - like they did with the SAFC P&R free shuttle services?

Don't assume anything
The Macmillian Open Evening last Thursday confirmed that there will be NO school services to the site from September 2016 - and I have seen a photo of the poster as one of the Stagecoach drivers was actually at the event as a parent and took a photo as he was equally as shocked as I was when he told me.

Oh, and the depot management had no idea either.

(17 Jul 2015, 8:49 pm)South Tyne Lad wrote Though im not 100% sure I think if another MAN 18.220 was to come to Shields it would be a similar number to one based at Shields 22050/67/70 so it could be 22051 for example which if happens it will make its second appearance at Shields having been based there for a few months before moving back to Slatyford.

It doesn't work like that though does it. Would have made sense when Stockton got some old MANs from Busways to get their own back but the likes of 22673 stayed up there and we got loads of Busways own.

2017 Order Suggestions:

ADL E400 MMCs for the E1/E2/E6 displacing ADL E300s 27723-40 to Slatyford - replacing more MAN ALX300s.
More Gas Buses for Sunderland. Will there be a ADL E200 (or equivalent size) gas bus created in the near future?

(01 Oct 2016, 8:39 pm)AIG20 wrote 2017 Order Suggestions:

ADL E400 MMCs for the E1/E2/E6 displacing ADL E300s 27723-40 to Slatyford - replacing more MAN ALX300s.
More Gas Buses for Sunderland. Will there be a ADL E200 (or equivalent size) gas bus created in the near future?

The CNG Scania is still available, Though id say that it's quite unlikely Stagecoach are going to invest in something like that for the foreseeable future.

As for E400MMCs on the E's, I'm keeping my fingers crossed!

(01 Oct 2016, 8:39 pm)AIG20 wrote 2017 Order Suggestions:

ADL E400 MMCs for the E1/E2/E6 displacing ADL E300s 27723-40 to Slatyford - replacing more MAN ALX300s.
More Gas Buses for Sunderland. Will there be a ADL E200 (or equivalent size) gas bus created in the near future?

I do think it's time the Economics became double decker allocated permantly. I know that on Sundays the often use the "Get More, More, More with your X34" branded Tridents, however I feel the services would profit massively from double decker vehicles.

(01 Oct 2016, 8:39 pm)AIG20 wrote 2017 Order Suggestions:

ADL E400 MMCs for the E1/E2/E6 displacing ADL E300s 27723-40 to Slatyford - replacing more MAN ALX300s.
More Gas Buses for Sunderland. Will there be a ADL E200 (or equivalent size) gas bus created in the near future?

I hope so, it was said that the management wanted to make Sunderland a fully gas operation depot, hopefully that still happens but somehow i doubt it will, probables due to the price of them.

Double decker was the standard for economics until the E300's came along. The Volvo Olympions were delivered with "economic" local fleet branding. Maybe a split allocation of current e300s and e400mmc (ideal for peak journeys) or maybe 6 mmc's for x34 with older tridents to economic services?

Kind regards

Chris

5x E200MMC - 100 (Slatyford)
Replacement for 22570/74/80/81
22570/74/80/81 will be allocated to services 71/72/87 alongside 24113 - 24115.

14x E200MMC - Sunderland 
Replacement for 36081 - 89 which will be cascaded elsewhere in the UK with Stagecoach.
36090 will remain at Sunderland allowing 39709 to transfer to South Shields allowing the withdrawal of 35188.
36091 will remain at Sunderland allowing 39727 to transfer to Slatyford to allow the withdrawl of A ALX300.
36092 will remain at Sunderland allowing both 34605 and 35189 to be Withdrawn.
36093/94 transfer to Walkergate and act as spares allowing 22022/24 to be withdrawn.

3x E400MMC - Sunderland 
New buses for the X24 allowing for 24001 - 24003 to be withdrawn.

4x E400MMC - South Shields 
New buses for the X34 allowing for 19641 - 19644 to remain at South Shields and be allocated to the Economic services.
27726 - 29 to be split between Slatyford and Stockton to allow for further ALX300s to be withdrawn.

That's my predictions.

22 - Alexander Dennis Enviro 400MMC's - South Shields - X34/Economics

19641 to 19644 to Slatyford to replace CitySightSeeing Dennis Trident ALX400's
27726 to 27740 to replace remaining ALX300's at Stockton as part of Depot Standardisation

24 - Alexander Dennis Enviro 200MMC - Hartlepool

36957 to 39714 split between Walkergate and Slatyford replacing Alexander ALX300's

26 - Alexander Dennis Enviro 400MMC - Walkergate - 39/40

12061 to 12086 to replace older Enviro 400's in the fleet at Walkergate & Slatyford

(26 Nov 2017, 3:42 pm)Malarkey wrote 22 - Alexander Dennis Enviro 400MMC's - South Shields - X34/Economics

19641 to 19644 to Slatyford to replace CitySightSeeing Dennis Trident ALX400's
27726 to 27740 to replace remaining ALX300's at Stockton as part of Depot Standardisation

24 - Alexander Dennis Enviro 200MMC - Hartlepool

36957 to 39714 split between Walkergate and Slatyford replacing Alexander ALX300's

26 - Alexander Dennis Enviro 400MMC - Walkergate - 39/40

12061 to 12086 to replace older Enviro 400's in the fleet at Walkergate & Slatyford

I don't think those ALX400s need replacing just yet, 19641 - 44 could always join 19645 - 47 on the X63. Then it would release 4 E400s in the 192xx series to move to Slatyford to allow further ALX300s to be withdrawn.

Are order for stagecoach north east for next year I am happy to see new buses for stagecoach Hartlepool is 27726 to 27740 going to Stockton depot replace the last of alx 300 buses is that right then.

(28 Nov 2017, 8:29 pm)glen1234 wrote Are order for stagecoach north east for next year I am happy to see new buses for stagecoach Hartlepool is 27726 to 27740 going to Stockton depot replace the last of alx 300 buses is that right then.

this thread is about predictions. In other words what we "think" not what we "know"

These are just suggestions, and wildly optimistic at that. I doubt there's a cat in hell's chance of 72 new buses being purchased, even allowing for those that were deferred to the next financial year.

(28 Nov 2017, 8:29 pm)glen1234 wrote Are order for stagecoach north east for next year I am happy to see new buses for stagecoach Hartlepool is 27726 to 27740 going to Stockton depot replace the last of alx 300 buses is that right then.

Nothing has been confirmed as of yet, its just speculation.

thank you for info mate

New cascade suggestion:
22570/74/79/80/81 to devon in trade for 15781-5 to allow the 100 to  have the much needed double decker conversion.
This will also require a re-route avoiding the low bridge so I have made a new one. On the new route buses will operate via Scotswood view, Holinside way, onto the A1, exit the A1 from the A184 slip road then normal route in both directions.
The spares will be the leather seater E400s (19194/6/7)
15781-5 will recieve minimal branding for the 100 with the same 100 logo the yutong demo had but on the scanias above the doors, above driver cab and inside the rear poster boards.
Inside the side posters boards there will be the images on that are on the current E300s at the back windows 
These will have wi-fi and usb chargers fitted
What are your thoughts