Does the current uncertainty over the effect the election of a new North East Mayor will have on the provision of bus services in the area make the sale of Arriva Northumbria in the short term unlikely, or could a possible bidder see it as an opportunity worth a punt?

I'd imagine the railway line is the bigger problem for Northumbria. It's the sort of uncertainity that would put anyone off as it has the potential to cause all sorts of problems (or none at all).

(19 Jul 2023, 1:21 pm)Storx wrote I'd imagine the railway line is the bigger problem for Northumbria. It's the sort of uncertainity that would put anyone off as it has the potential to cause all sorts of problems (or none at all).

Although definitely to be seen as a threat, if you look around the area, bus services run next to other train and Metro services,  the Morpeth routes for example, and all the routes that run next to Metro lines.

(19 Jul 2023, 1:30 pm)Bazza wrote Although definitely to be seen as a threat, if you look around the area, bus services run next to other train and Metro services,  the Morpeth routes for example, and all the routes that run next to Metro lines.

Aye but the areas where the Metro's are bus services are scarse, especially in North Tyneside it's virtually a skelton service. I know other reopenings have had a massive impact and Arriva probably don't want to sell it for the value of a less busy service and a company won't want to buy it for the value of it is now. If that makes sense.

Arriva is for sale as an entity, not individual businesses.

(19 Jul 2023, 4:15 pm)RobinHood wrote Arriva is for sale as an entity, not individual businesses.

Is that just an assumption?    Surely that’s something only known at board level?

(19 Jul 2023, 4:15 pm)RobinHood wrote Arriva is for sale as an entity, not individual businesses.

Haven't individual portions gone already?

(19 Jul 2023, 4:31 pm)Andreos1 wrote Haven't individual portions gone already?

I must admit I thought that too

(19 Jul 2023, 4:31 pm)Andreos1 wrote Haven't individual portions gone already?

Don't believe they've sold anything, just shut down some weak parts. Kent in particular.

(19 Jul 2023, 5:24 pm)Storx wrote Don't believe they've sold anything, just shut down some weak parts. Kent in particular.

Yorkshire Tiger?

(19 Jul 2023, 5:24 pm)Storx wrote Don't believe they've sold anything, just shut down some weak parts. Kent in particular.

I believe some of their routes in Bolton pass to GNW as part of the franchising too.

(19 Jul 2023, 4:31 pm)Bazza wrote Is that just an assumption?    Surely that’s something only known at board level?

It's well known internally that DB intend to sell Arriva as a whole, not broken into chunks. The latter makes no sense to DB as the process would take a long time. They want completion by 2025. This information around the dates seems to corroborated in the below business news article from April.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/com...11046.html

I understand that not only other companies may be interested, but also investment firms too. Arriva may even be 'spun-off' back into its own standalone business.

The title of this thread momentarily got my hopes up 

(19 Jul 2023, 9:29 pm)RobinHood wrote It's well known internally that DB intend to sell Arriva as a whole, not broken into chunks. The latter makes no sense to DB as the process would take a long time. They want completion by 2025. This information around the dates seems to corroborated in the below business news article from April.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/com...11046.html

I understand that not only other companies may be interested, but also investment firms too. Arriva may even be 'spun-off' back into its own standalone business.

With the uncertainty around long term funding surrounding the UK bus industry, the post Covid passenger reduction, multiple areas talking about franchising services (where your business is confiscated), and the need for heavy investment in the fleet I can’t see anyone buying the UK bus business as a whole.

(20 Jul 2023, 5:58 am)busmanT wrote With the uncertainty around long term funding surrounding the UK bus industry, the post Covid passenger reduction, multiple areas talking about franchising services (where your business is confiscated), and the need for heavy investment in the fleet I can’t see anyone buying the UK bus business as a whole.

I suppose stranger things have happened. Both Go Ahead and Stagecoach sold last year, despite the market conditions not being much different and neither being publicly listed for sale. 

It does however raise the question of what is the issue with the Arriva business, if they can't seem to get any interest in it?

(20 Jul 2023, 9:49 am)Adrian wrote I suppose stranger things have happened. Both Go Ahead and Stagecoach sold last year, despite the market conditions not being much different and neither being publicly listed for sale. 

It does however raise the question of what is the issue with the Arriva business, if they can't seem to get any interest in it?

DB asking too much for the Arriva Bus business in the UK, since there Rail business got stripped by the government so no more income for DB using UK taxpayers money, there was interested parties but DB are standing firm with over priced valuations and decided to put Arriva Bus side on the stock market instead to fund there transport infrastructure in Germany, while UK transport infrastructure is failing and the UK government paying out to bus companies who are owned by other countries and themselves pocketing the cash for there own gains


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/com...12890.html

I don’t claim to have any inside knowledge or indeed know enough about First, but there is a fairly persistent rumour amongst local Arriva staff that a deal has been done and First has bought, at minimum, Arriva Northumbria, with an announcement within the next few weeks.

This has been circulating since the beginning of July and refuses to die.

(10 Aug 2023, 5:54 pm)Bazza wrote I don’t claim to have any inside knowledge or indeed know enough about First, but there is a fairly persistent rumour amongst local Arriva staff that a deal has been done and First has bought, at minimum, Arriva Northumbria, with an announcement within the next few weeks.

This has been circulating since the beginning of July and refuses to die.

Absolutely not true. However, being unable to proove this (without repercussions), does mean that my reply holds as much weight as someone conversely saying the opposite.

All I will say is, bookmark this thread to come back to at Christmas and I guarantee nothing of the sort will have happened.

(10 Aug 2023, 5:54 pm)Bazza wrote I don’t claim to have any inside knowledge or indeed know enough about First, but there is a fairly persistent rumour amongst local Arriva staff that a deal has been done and First has bought, at minimum, Arriva Northumbria, with an announcement within the next few weeks.

This has been circulating since the beginning of July and refuses to die.

Could see the return of NORTHUMBRIA or something down those lines going off First's other area brandings.

Doubt it would ever happen....but would be interesting if GNE ever landed Ashington depot and watching the potential shifting around of some of the native Arriva E400MMCs and GNE's native E400MMCs.....not forgetting that GNE's native examples have something that would be extremely popular on the X14/X15/X18.

GNE actually used to operate from the current Arriva depot in Ashington, before they sold it in exchange for Hexham depot during 2010 (I think?)

(10 Aug 2023, 7:28 pm)wibblejunior wrote GNE actually used to operate from the current Arriva depot in Ashington, before they sold it in exchange for Hexham depot during 2010 (I think?)

Not the current one, that was built for Arriva

(10 Aug 2023, 6:32 pm)RobinHood wrote Absolutely not true. However, being unable to proove this (without repercussions), does mean that my reply holds as much weight as someone conversely saying the opposite.

All I will say is, bookmark this thread to come back to at Christmas and I guarantee nothing of the sort will have happened.

You I think it is very unlikely, especially as any buyer would probably want to see how things settle down after the withdrawal of the 51-55 (I'd guess), and on top of that, I doubt it would be worthwhile buying the Northumbria division alone.

(10 Aug 2023, 6:32 pm)RobinHood wrote Absolutely not true. However, being unable to proove this (without repercussions), does mean that my reply holds as much weight as someone conversely saying the opposite.

All I will say is, bookmark this thread to come back to at Christmas and I guarantee nothing of the sort will have happened.

That’s the trouble with unsubstantiated rumours.  

However, for you to guarantee that nothing of the sort will have happened before Christmas suggests that there is a reason why it can’t happen, ie the offer has been made and resoundingly turned down, or something else is on the cards. 

And, unlike me, you have suggested you do have inside knowledge.

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(10 Aug 2023, 11:07 pm)solsburian wrote You I think it is very unlikely, especially as any buyer would probably want to see how things settle down after the withdrawal of the 51-55 (I'd guess), and on top of that, I doubt it would be worthwhile buying the Northumbria division alone.

You’d think that if a deal was on the cards the shedding of those routes would be accounted for or even a pre requisite of the deal. 

I’m led to believe the the Northumbria division is one of the better performing parts, so I don’t know why it couldn’t or wouldn’t be bought alone

I always thought GNE would go after it as it seems to be wanting to strengthen its NT routes, this would be perfect.

But that would come at a cost, presumably money GNE don't have

(12 Aug 2023, 10:49 am)Iamtheone8483748 wrote But that would come at a cost, presumably money GNE don't have

But does Go-Ahead?

GoAhead can stay well away and so can WorstBus imo.

(10 Aug 2023, 7:28 pm)wibblejunior wrote GNE actually used to operate from the current Arriva depot in Ashington, before they sold it in exchange for Hexham depot during 2010 (I think?)

GNE's depot (formerly Northumbria Coaches) was in Jubillee Industrial Estate, before being sold to Arriva. 

Arriva's depot was on Lintonville Terrace at the time, with the operations of Jubilee merged into there. It then moved to Lintonville Parkway in 2014.

(12 Aug 2023, 10:47 am)Unber43 wrote I always thought GNE would go after it as it seems to be wanting to strengthen its NT routes, this would be perfect.

I would imagine it would be harder for either GNE or Stagecoach to take over ANE as this would cause problems regarding competition.  

A large operator not currently having a presence in the area would have no such problems you would presume

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(12 Aug 2023, 11:07 am)Storx wrote GoAhead can stay well away and so can WorstBus imo.

Would an asset stripping venture capital group be a better option?