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(28 Oct 2023, 9:30 am)Storx wrote Wasn't saying get shot of it, just surprised GNE still run it commercially when they've been cutting other services when on the ground appear more busy.
(28 Oct 2023, 9:48 am)Andreos1 wrote Imagine if the company sacks the strikers!Would they really be in any worse of a situation?
They would be in a right pickle then.
But, having seen and heard the behaviour/comments/logic coming out of GNE Towers, nothing would surprise me.
(28 Oct 2023, 9:51 am)Shrek wrote I can't be 100% certain, but I'm sure they still get money from Great Park to run the route. They certainly used to get a decent amount for it.
(28 Oct 2023, 10:38 am)col87 wrote Well it seems to me the current management are doing there best to kill off go north east. I do not see this ending very well and if I was Stagecoach Arriva or of the independents i would be using any loophole i could to be setting up services in the areas most affected and trying to do it on an emergency basis with a view to it been permanent and nicking Go North East’s passengers.
In theory you would think Go North East would be doing everything to make it don’t last 12 weeks but i get the impression the current management don’t care to much so i have to wonder if someone higher up from the Go Ahead will eventually step in to try sort something out. Passengers in the meantime are going to make do or find alternatives to get about so while a majority will go back to using them when services are restored they is likely going to be a drop in passengers
(28 Oct 2023, 10:09 am)streetdeckfan wrote Would they really be in any worse of a situation?
It seems like running the buses is more expensive than not.
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(27 Oct 2023, 1:47 pm)busmanT wrote All those stats are publicly available.
GNE made a loss of £4.5m last year.
GNE drivers received at least a 10% pay rise last year - between 2018 and 2022 there was of course the COVID-19 pandemic which depressed everybody’s pay.
Go North West drivers do a lot more work in a shift than GNE drivers do in the same shift length - that’s why they get paid more per hour.
Will his next statement be “loss making GNE closes depots and cuts services”?
(27 Oct 2023, 1:47 pm)busmanT wrote All those stats are publicly available.
GNE made a loss of £4.5m last year.
GNE drivers received at least a 10% pay rise last year - between 2018 and 2022 there was of course the COVID-19 pandemic which depressed everybody’s pay.
Go North West drivers do a lot more work in a shift than GNE drivers do in the same shift length - that’s why they get paid more per hour.
Will his next statement be “loss making GNE closes depots and cuts services”?
(27 Oct 2023, 1:47 pm)busmanT wrote All those stats are publicly available.
GNE made a loss of £4.5m last year.
GNE drivers received at least a 10% pay rise last year - between 2018 and 2022 there was of course the COVID-19 pandemic which depressed everybody’s pay.
Go North West drivers do a lot more work in a shift than GNE drivers do in the same shift length - that’s why they get paid more per hour.
Will his next statement be “loss making GNE closes depots and cuts services”?
(28 Oct 2023, 7:28 am)Storx wrote I 100% disagree that Nexus should do anything personally. The council should not be bailing out commercial routes.
I understand the inconvenience but that's the point of a strike.
(28 Oct 2023, 9:32 am)BusLoverMum wrote Well, no. They can "only" strike until December 22nd before GNE is allowed to sack them.
(28 Oct 2023, 10:50 am)Bazza wrote I’m very suspicious of the losses posted by GNE.
Given it’s a company within a company and the parent is making money, can it be demonstrated that payments aren’t made to the parent company, that end up pushing the wholly owned company into a loss. (Payments for services, lease of vehicles or whatever).
Plus. What has general mismanagement cost? I’m particularly thinking about the costs associated with the closure of C-le-St?
I have not studied the accounts posted so honestly don’t know. Can anyone elaborate?
(28 Oct 2023, 11:28 am)Bazza wrote And by extension job losses.
Remember that GNE provide a service that cannot be outsourced to cheaper countries, they need the employees here.
Job losses would mean, by and large, redundancies, I can guarantee that there will be drivers and engineers happy to take their payments and leave the industry, whether because they are nearing retirement or just happy to go and try something else.
Because of the high staff turn over, there will be a number of staff who were planning on leaving anyway regardless of redundancies.
There will be drivers and engineers who will find work at other operators quite quickly just to fill current vacancies due to the shortages currently being experienced.
If GNE shuts depot(s) and cuts routes, there will be other operators step in to take on routes they could see as profitable, and routes that Nexus and councils will have to keep running. Again creating more jobs for displaced drivers and engineers.
So if I was currently a GNE driver I could see the current dispute as a bit of a gamble, with either a vastly improved renumeration package or at worse a move to another operator ( in the case of ANE and Stagecoach) with a slightly better package that I now have.
With the current driver shortage, it is likely the only ones left unemployed are those who possibly shouldn’t be employed in the first place.
And of course managers and ancillary staff.
I know this is a simplistic view. But quite an accurate one I think.
(28 Oct 2023, 11:50 am)Adrian wrote I agree with the sentiment of this, but I do think Nexus should be doing something; they should be urgently reviewing any contract/secured service work that Go North East is contracted to deliver, and either terminating it due to non-performance, or look to put it out to emergency tender.
Remember when GCT were in this situation a year or so ago, with not having the ability to deliver what they'd signed up to? Everyone was calling for their heads then.
(28 Oct 2023, 11:50 am)Storx wrote Not to mention with the very heavily linked upcoming franchising coming into play, someone like First or Rotala might fancy a depot up here so when they come around they have a foot in the door to go for something bigger.Yeah because you want Rotala up here, you know the company where wheels fall of their buses half way through service, safety concerns ignored.
Ironically what GoNorthWest done pretty much.
Yeah agreed with the contract work, same with Co. Durham to be fair. Similar to what Northumberland County Council have done in Hexham pretty much. The suggestions seemed to be to tender out stuff to cover the likes of the 20, 56 and X1 though.
(28 Oct 2023, 10:09 am)streetdeckfan wrote Would they really be in any worse of a situation?
It seems like running the buses is more expensive than not.
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(25 Oct 2023, 2:14 pm)Adrian wrote Another one that looks like it's been written by someone that has been slapped across the face with a copy of the S*n...
From this paragraph, it sounds like the offer will be put to ballot: "The next move is for Unite to ballot its members. An endorsement for the new pay rates should allow the union to call off its indefinite strike due to start on Saturday 28 October."
What isn't clear, probably due to the tabloid-style writing, is whether it'd be recommended for acceptance.
(28 Oct 2023, 10:38 am)col87 wrote Well it seems to me the current management are doing there best to kill off go north east. I do not see this ending very well and if I was Stagecoach Arriva or of the independents i would be using any loophole i could to be setting up services in the areas most affected and trying to do it on an emergency basis with a view to it been permanent and nicking Go North East’s passengers.Stagecoach have the entire country to lean on for buses, driver numbers are the problem. Stagecoach could do it if they wanted to, seems the old fashioned spirit no longer exists.
In theory you would think Go North East would be doing everything to make it don’t last 12 weeks but i get the impression the current management don’t care to much so i have to wonder if someone higher up from the Go Ahead will eventually step in to try sort something out. Passengers in the meantime are going to make do or find alternatives to get about so while a majority will go back to using them when services are restored they is likely going to be a drop in passengers
(28 Oct 2023, 11:28 am)Bazza wrote So if I was currently a GNE driver I could see the current dispute as a bit of a gamble, with either a vastly improved renumeration package or at worse a move to another operator ( in the case of ANE and Stagecoach) with a slightly better package that I now have.
(28 Oct 2023, 2:41 pm)streetdeckfan wrote That implies they would want to keep running buses in the North East. It's just not financially viable!
(29 Oct 2023, 4:21 pm)Storx wrote Was thinking about this before and they're squabbling over roughly an £1 an hour. It might seem a lot of money but in the grand scheme of things it's literally 1 passenger, every 3 buses an hour. No doubt this strike long term will drop passenger numbers and exceed that.
Never know having the higher wage might mean they could have a full intake of drivers which means that every route could run - yet again which will bring more money in than 1/3 of a passenger fare per hour.
(29 Oct 2023, 5:32 pm)Dan wrote I don’t often reply in this thread, but I wanted to quickly highlight that by increasing wages by £1/hr, you’re adding at least £3 million to the wage bill at GNE.
When the company’s published accounts already show them losing £millions, I’m not sure how they could sustain adding another £3m of cost (on top of the £4m the company has already tabled and has been rejected).
I’m off to pour myself a large glass of red…
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(29 Oct 2023, 5:53 pm)Storx wrote The companies revenue from fares is £65m though in 2022. These strikes are going to lose customers long term as much as 5% easily which is this £3m. I get the argument that giving more money when making a loss is stupid, which of course it is, but the constant strikes and service cancellations, buses are never going to recover.
Obviously I don't have the financial stats it but if these cancellations keep going, people will continue to avoid buses and long term it will be more damaging and no btw I don't agree with the £15+ that is stupid but I have heard on another forum that the union proposed a deal for £14.81 which would've ended all this which GNE rejected.
I know Ben Maxfield get's a lot of criticism and he probably deserves it but this imo all stems back to utterly crazy idea under the past management to slash fares across the board. Absolutely ridiculous decision which backfired big time especially considering Arriva and Stagecoach have both recovered to similar levels, and arguably better in some areas like Ashington but didn't intentionally decide to slash it's fares.
(29 Oct 2023, 6:09 pm)Adrian wrote Yes, but the operating costs were £89.7m, leaving them with an operating loss of £1.9m (not the inflated figure they're quoting). Their operating costs have actually decreased by about £7m, compared to their 2019 accounts, but the real issue is they're down about £7.5m on contract (or 'other') revenue and close to £17m on passenger revenue.
As I posted elsewhere earlier, it seems that the first thought is still cut, rather than grow. It's never going to work in the long-term; you're simply re-arranging the deckchairs on a sinking ship.
Maxfield gets a lot of criticism, and rightly so. At a time the business clearly needs leadership, they've ended up with a glove puppet for NF. It's absolutely ludicrous that they expect their workforce to pay the price for failure at the top.
(29 Oct 2023, 5:53 pm)Storx wrote The companies revenue from fares is £65m though in 2022. These strikes are going to lose customers long term as much as 5% easily which is this £3m. I get the argument that giving more money when making a loss is stupid, which of course it is, but the constant strikes and service cancellations, buses are never going to recover.
Obviously I don't have the financial stats it but if these cancellations keep going, people will continue to avoid buses and long term it will be more damaging and no btw I don't agree with the £15+ that is stupid but I have heard on another forum that the union proposed a deal for £14.81 which would've ended all this which GNE rejected.
I know Ben Maxfield get's a lot of criticism and he probably deserves it but this imo all stems back to utterly crazy idea under the past management to slash fares across the board. Absolutely ridiculous decision which backfired big time especially considering Arriva and Stagecoach have both recovered to similar levels, and arguably better in some areas like Ashington but didn't intentionally decide to slash it's fares.
(29 Oct 2023, 6:09 pm)Adrian wrote Yes, but the operating costs were £89.7m, leaving them with an operating loss of £1.9m (not the inflated figure they're quoting). Their operating costs have actually decreased by about £7m, compared to their 2019 accounts, but the real issue is they're down about £7.5m on contract (or 'other') revenue and close to £17m on passenger revenue.
As I posted elsewhere earlier, it seems that the first thought is still cut, rather than grow. It's never going to work in the long-term; you're simply re-arranging the deckchairs on a sinking ship.
Maxfield gets a lot of criticism, and rightly so. At a time the business clearly needs leadership, they've ended up with a glove puppet for NF. It's absolutely ludicrous that they expect their workforce to pay the price for failure at the top.
(29 Oct 2023, 6:43 pm)mb134 wrote To get that extra £3m per year though, they'd have to grow revenue by over £8000 per day. Lets assume all passengers are paying by £2 singles - that's an extra 4000 journeys per day needed to claw back that £3m.
That's on top of the £4m that has been stated above to cover the pay rise which has been offered. Combined, GNE would need to increase revenue by over £19000 per day to fully cover the pay rise. That's 4750 new customers that need to make 2 trips by bus, every single day.
In terms of your point on Arriva and Stagecoach, I wonder if that is more due to them having reasonably stable networks, especially in Northumberland and Newcastle? Those networks (bar the 51-55) are now slowly starting to expand again, albeit largely due to BSIP funding.
I struggle to see how they grow the business in it's current state, especially given the amount required to pay for these pay increases. There seems to be no investment currently from the new owners, just more second hand vehicles which themselves will need replacing sooner rather than later.
I think the expansion into North Tyneside was probably a decent attempt, but even if they were making a bit of money to start with I can't see those routes surviving this strike - passengers will have gone to Stagecoach, or will have arranged car shares as you've pointed out in another thread.
(29 Oct 2023, 6:43 pm)mb134 wrote To get that extra £3m per year though, they'd have to grow revenue by over £8000 per day. Lets assume all passengers are paying by £2 singles - that's an extra 4000 journeys per day needed to claw back that £3m.
That's on top of the £4m that has been stated above to cover the pay rise which has been offered. Combined, GNE would need to increase revenue by over £19000 per day to fully cover the pay rise. That's 4750 new customers that need to make 2 trips by bus, every single day.
In terms of your point on Arriva and Stagecoach, I wonder if that is more due to them having reasonably stable networks, especially in Northumberland and Newcastle? Those networks (bar the 51-55) are now slowly starting to expand again, albeit largely due to BSIP funding.
(29 Oct 2023, 7:00 pm)Andreos1 wrote In the first point, isn't the deficit between the standard fare and £2 fare being reimbursed by the Government?
Just for context, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-67248853 they were apparently carrying approx 2000 pax per day prior to the strikes.
(29 Oct 2023, 7:09 pm)mb134 wrote I'm not too sure how that is all worked out to be honest, just used it as an example for easy maths to show the growth needed. I had thought that it was based on passenger numbers/revenue before the introduction, with the reviews to reflect any growth that the £2 fares have had?
Looking at it another way, though, their All Zones day ticket is £7.50 on the app. They'd need an extra 2500 of those sold per day to get in the £19000 of extra daily revenue needed to pay for the pay increases.
On the passenger numbers, I can only see 175,000 per day stated in that article? "As one of the main bus operators in the area, the company has a fleet of almost 700 buses and coaches and said about 175,000 people usually boarded its services each day.".
(29 Oct 2023, 7:09 pm)mb134 wrote I'm not too sure how that is all worked out to be honest, just used it as an example for easy maths to show the growth needed. I had thought that it was based on passenger numbers/revenue before the introduction, with the reviews to reflect any growth that the £2 fares have had?
Looking at it another way, though, their All Zones day ticket is £7.50 on the app. They'd need an extra 2500 of those sold per day to get in the £19000 of extra daily revenue needed to pay for the pay increases.
On the passenger numbers, I can only see 175,000 per day stated in that article? "As one of the main bus operators in the area, the company has a fleet of almost 700 buses and coaches and said about 175,000 people usually boarded its services each day.".
(29 Oct 2023, 7:25 pm)Storx wrote To be fair though, assume there's 500 buses on a road every day. It's only 5 passenger per bus every day. Seems a lot but when you break it down it's not really much at all.
Just picking the 20/20A which is every 15 minutes between Durham and Sunderland. There's roughly 100 runs with both directions combined, if you got an extra 3 passengers on each run (not exactly unrealistic - this was 6 BPH pre Covid adding the X10 in) then you're 15% or so of the way there already. Do the same on the 21, 56 and X1 and you'll be pretty much nearly there.
(29 Oct 2023, 6:43 pm)mb134 wrote I struggle to see how they grow the business in it's current state, especially given the amount required to pay for these pay increases. There seems to be no investment currently from the new owners, just more second hand vehicles which themselves will need replacing sooner rather than later.
I think the expansion into North Tyneside was probably a decent attempt, but even if they were making a bit of money to start with I can't see those routes surviving this strike - passengers will have gone to Stagecoach, or will have arranged car shares as you've pointed out in another thread.
(29 Oct 2023, 7:25 pm)Andreos1 wrote And that's why I think the idea of cutting fares could have played a part in the growth.
You've said yourself it's only a handful of passengers per run across a variety of services.
The long gone eezypeazy never really liked what I said when I brought up similar points to the one you've just made, in the past.
That 21 from Chester that relied on the early 71s and 34s feeding in to it in Chester, inevitably saw numbers drop when the loss making runs on the 71 and 34 were axed. Only small numbers dropped off those 21s, but it somehow came as a huge shock when particular 21s on a morning were axed too.
I'd love to know what the impact on the X1 has been with the constant meddling of the Washington locals over the years.
Whether it was ANE doing the evening runs, JH doing daytime runs or GNE running it commercially, there must be a consequence and impact with the X1.
(29 Oct 2023, 7:25 pm)Andreos1 wrote https://www.gov.uk/guidance/claiming-the...very-grant
Here's some light reading. I hate Government grants/tenders etc and I'm too tired/hungover to do the maths, but the 200k they were originally carrying needs to grow regardless of any wage increase.
As a business, it's clear from the outside they're not achieving the growth and I genuinely don't know what the mindset is when we keep seeing the push for profit via cuts and cost savings vs profit via growth and expansion.
(29 Oct 2023, 7:39 pm)Adrian wrote I'm not suggesting it's easy, but it's the only option that won't involve downsizing/consolidation.
Wages are going to go up every year, and say this increase isn't agreed this year, I think it's pretty much guaranteed that it'll be at that level in the next 2-3 years. It's not just wages, though, suppliers are doing the same, as they have their own cost demands.
So if they're not going to try and look for a positive solution to 2023's position, what are they going to do come year 3 or 4?
Regarding the £2 fare, I'm not sure how the reimbursement formula works, but I understand that operators can opt not to participate in it and retain control over their fares.
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(29 Oct 2023, 8:43 pm)mb134 wrote I'll reply in one since I think my response will be similar.
I absolutely agree with both of you that the business needs to grow, not just for this pay increase but to ensure the long term sustainability of the business. Cutting services can only go on for so long before there's nothing left to cut and the network isn't really a network anymore.
As the business stands currently, however, I just don't see any potential for the growth required. There doesn't look to be the support there from GAG that would be required, in particular the lack of investment in new vehicles is approaching Arriva levels of sod all. Then there are the current routes, maybe there was the potential for growing those with frequency increases, but will that still be the case after the industrial action?
