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Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions

Go North East: 2014/15 Financial Year Order Predictions

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Re: RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(30 Jul 2014, 9:27 pm)DaveyBowyer wrote Dan, do you think Volvo / Wrightbus will offer an 8 litre option?
I don't, in all honesty. At least not this year.

Call me cynical, but I've made my views clear on what I think Volvo's intentions are, with regards to 5 litre buses and lovely, luxurious (expensive) coaches being the other alternative...
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(30 Jul 2014, 9:30 pm)Dan wrote I don't, in all honesty. At least not this year.

Call me cynical, but I've made my views clear on what I think Volvo's intentions are, with regards to 5 litre buses and lovely, luxurious (expensive) coaches being the other alternative...

They'd get good orders from GNE if they did though.
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Re: RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(30 Jul 2014, 9:32 pm)DaveyBowyer wrote They'd get good orders from GNE if they did though.
They will continue to get orders from GNE regardless, because operators of GNE's size can't afford to splash out on coaches.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(30 Jul 2014, 9:34 pm)Dan wrote They will continue to get orders from GNE regardless, because operators of GNE's size can't afford to splash out on coaches.

And so would Alpha make good money towing a B5 back all the way from Middlesborough to Riverside.
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Re: RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(30 Jul 2014, 9:35 pm)DaveyBowyer wrote And so would Alpha make good money towing a B5 back all the way from Middlesborough to Riverside.
I aspire that, by the time replacement vehicles NEED to be sourced for the TTX, there will be more suitable alternatives available on the market... Until then, no B5 should really be making its way to Middlesbrough.

Davey, did you hear about the Lothian B5 which went from Newcastle to Edinburgh, then a few days later, Edinburgh to Brighton, then the day after, made the return journey back to Edinburgh?
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(30 Jul 2014, 9:27 pm)DaveyBowyer wrote Dan, do you think Volvo / Wrightbus will offer an 8 litre option?

NO! There will not be a B8TL.

(30 Jul 2014, 9:32 pm)DaveyBowyer wrote They'd get good orders from GNE if they did though.

And that is the reason - the majority of the operators they received feedback for Euro6 on asked for the B5TL - they are not going to spend another large amount of money redeveloping their Euro6 chassis to weight less than the Euro5 B9TL to fit the 8-litre engine (the Euro6 B5TL is something like 1000kg less than the B9TL iirc). The fact we've yet to see a B8RLE shows volumes of how the market is going.
Re: RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(30 Jul 2014, 9:41 pm)Kuyoyo wrote NO! There will not be a B8TL.


And that is the reason - the majority of the operators they received feedback for Euro6 on asked for the B5TL - they are not going to spend another large amount of money redeveloping their Euro6 chassis to weight less than the Euro5 B9TL to fit the 8-litre engine (the Euro6 B5TL is something like 1000kg less than the B9TL iirc). The fact we've yet to see a B8RLE shows volumes of how the market is going.
I'd argue that they would *if* (and that's a big if) there was suddenly enough demand for one. They'd be stupid not to, because if a gap appears in the market, then there's always someone to fill it.

Unlikely maybe, but you can't categorically rule it out.
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RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(30 Jul 2014, 9:44 pm)aureolin wrote I'd argue that they would *if* (and that's a big if) there was suddenly enough demand for one. They'd be stupid not to, because if a gap appears in the market, then there's always someone to fill it.

Unlikely maybe, but you can't categorically rule it out.

But what demand - Volvo's main UK customer was First, and they've gone to ADL. National Express's bus fleets have likewise. Arriva also have gone back to ADL from VDL/Wright. Most of Volvo's market has gone - mainly due to problems at Euro4 with weight (hence the lack of B9TLs in London pre-2008).

The simple fact is this - unless the minority that want a B8TL is large enough to recover costs, there won't be a B8TL. End of the day, this is business and Volvo won't spend millions re-working a chassis for a engine when only 1 or 2 companies will buy it from them.
Re: RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(30 Jul 2014, 9:52 pm)Kuyoyo wrote But what demand - Volvo's main UK customer was First, and they've gone to ADL. National Express's bus fleets have likewise. Arriva also have gone back to ADL from VDL/Wright. Most of Volvo's market has gone - mainly due to problems at Euro4 with weight (hence the lack of B9TLs in London pre-2008).

The simple fact is this - unless the minority that want a B8TL is large enough to recover costs, there won't be a B8TL. End of the day, this is business and Volvo won't spend millions re-working a chassis for a engine when only 1 or 2 companies will buy it from them.

Which is exactly what I've said.

Each business defines what sufficient demand is based on numerous factors, but the top and bottom of it in this case would normally be demand for enough units to cover development, production, overheads, and to make a profit in line with group targets on top of that.
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RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(30 Jul 2014, 9:39 pm)Dan wrote I aspire that, by the time replacement vehicles NEED to be sourced for the TTX, there will be more suitable alternatives available on the market... Until then, no B5 should really be making its way to Middlesbrough.

Davey, did you hear about the Lothian B5 which went from Newcastle to Edinburgh, then a few days later, Edinburgh to Brighton, then the day after, made the return journey back to Edinburgh?

I'm not talking about short term, I'm talking about upto 18 hours per day for 7 years. I know the B9TL's have been tempermental but have been OK.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
Put it this way, this is what they'd get from GNE alone:

- 16 for the X1
- 24 for the TEN and TTX
- 18 for the Cobalt Clipper
- 17 for the Fab 56
- 20 for the Angel
- 9 for the Pronto

That alone is 104 vehicles. Then count in:

- Prince Bishops?
- Laser
- WTX?
- Toonlink
- Citylink if a single deck capacity da ja vu occurs (rather than rigid to artic)?
- Crusader?
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
Then count in ANE if they're willing to sacrafice fuel economy:

- 10 for Coast and Castles
- 15 for X21 / X22
- 12 for X10 / X11 (308)
- 6 for X93

Then count in EYMS, they like bit of power and so do Transdev for the Yorkshire Coastliner. Then count in First Eastern Counties (X1), Go Ahead South Coast and Brighton and Hove.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(30 Jul 2014, 10:09 pm)DaveyBowyer wrote Put it this way, this is what they'd get from GNE alone:

- 16 for the X1
- 24 for the TEN and TTX
- 18 for the Cobalt Clipper
- 17 for the Fab 56
- 20 for the Angel
- 9 for the Pronto

That alone is 104 vehicles. Then count in:

- Prince Bishops?
- Laser
- WTX?
- Toonlink
- Citylink if a single deck capacity da ja vu occurs (rather than rigid to artic)?
- Crusader?

(30 Jul 2014, 10:17 pm)DaveyBowyer wrote Then count in ANE if they're willing to sacrafice fuel economy:

- 10 for Coast and Castles
- 15 for X21 / X22
- 12 for X10 / X11 (308)
- 6 for X93

Then count in EYMS, they like bit of power and so do Transdev for the Yorkshire Coastliner. Then count in First Eastern Counties (X1), Go Ahead South Coast and Brighton and Hove.

Those in bold - First have give up on Volvo, indeed the X1 is worked by E400s now (and they last ordered deckers for Volvo in 2012, and those are now used in Leeds (98) and Manchester (2) after the Olympics). Go-Ahead South Coast have never had B9TLs - indeed all 3 operations (Bluestar, Wilts & Dorset and Southern Vetics) took E400s last year. Arriva are ordering ADLs. Brighton and Hove might but at the end of the day, they just go with the flow (and given most of their work is city service, E400s will do fine).

The simple fact is, 3 operations won't justify the cost of either re-working the B5TL chassis for an 8-litre engine or comply designing a brand new one from scratch. You need to realise that it's very unlikely they will do so.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
Can anybody remember what GNE forcasted of the amount of new buses for this year?, if I remember their was 100 new buses for the pervious year, and their was something of the amount of in the 70's or 80's new buses this year, cant remember exact amount.

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RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(31 Jul 2014, 1:48 pm)cbma06 wrote Can anybody remember what GNE forcasted of the amount of new buses for this year?, if I remember their was 100 new buses for the pervious year, and their was something of the amount of in the 70's or 80's new buses this year, cant remember exact amount.

Go North East said in their QCS response that they intended to purchase 80 vehicles this and next year; however, plans can change... As I said yesterday, none of our GNE insiders have actually suggested 80 vehicles will be ordered this year - they've suggested a few brand names, but none of the brand names have ever amassed to 80 vehicles in total.

Let's not forget they ordered more vehicles last year than they expected (owing to the downfall of Yourbus with GNE taking on a lot of the work)... Second hand coaches are fairly pricey - brand new coaches are even more expensive.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
Just thinking - if there are additional peak time runs on the X21, could the service be operated by Citaros?
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(05 Aug 2014, 5:31 pm)Tom wrote Just thinking - if there are additional peak time runs on the X21, could the service be operated by Citaros?

I think the X21 would be better served by a double deck vehicle based on the North bound loadings from Chester le Street between 09.28 and 11.28.
Edit: The link below shows a typical weekday loading for the X21 mid morning.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/gpr_bus_ph...9589969513

There will be even more passengers on the same journey on a Saturday.
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RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(05 Aug 2014, 5:31 pm)Tom wrote Just thinking - if there are additional peak time runs on the X21, could the service be operated by Citaros?

Not really - refer to the second last quote on this post.

As GuyParkRoyal said above, there are a lot of times where service X21 has a lot of customers. Much like the present situation with service 685, this is Go North East hammering another nail into Arriva's coffin.

We've recently discussed Stagecoach on Teesside's operations in regards to double deckers, and I must say that Go North East is very good at investing into double deckers if the service justifies them at peak times - maybe they don't care about all those pennies after all, and do care about their customers! Wink
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
Just been thinking, although it could be a Long Shot due to said Vehicles only Receiving a Repaint in May 2012, But would the Red Kite justify Double Deckers, and more so Justify them if Toonlink Service 47 was to join the Brand, and then be extended from Blackhall Mill to Consett via Medomeley and Leadgate, Thus upping the Frequency to Every 10 Minutes and also having the Services Interwork with eachother.

As a Result Toonlink Service 11 would be a Standalone Service, while Services 31/32 would still Interwork, and on top of that would still receive Investment this year.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(06 Aug 2014, 5:54 pm)Dan wrote Not really - refer to the second last quote on this post.

As GuyParkRoyal said above, there are a lot of times where service X21 has a lot of customers. Much like the present situation with service 685, this is Go North East hammering another nail into Arriva's coffin.

We've recently discussed Stagecoach on Teesside's operations in regards to double deckers, and I must say that Go North East is very good at investing into double deckers if the service justifies them at peak times - maybe they don't care about all those pennies after all, and do care about their customers! Wink

Agreed and they buy good double deckers too! (a.k.a, no eco friendly nonsense with the exception of the Angel)
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(06 Aug 2014, 5:54 pm)Dan wrote Not really - refer to the second last quote on this post.

As GuyParkRoyal said above, there are a lot of times where service X21 has a lot of customers. Much like the present situation with service 685, this is Go North East hammering another nail into Arriva's coffin.

We've recently discussed Stagecoach on Teesside's operations in regards to double deckers, and I must say that Go North East is very good at investing into double deckers if the service justifies them at peak times - maybe they don't care about all those pennies after all, and do care about their customers! Wink

Must admit - last time I seen the X21 departing Durham for Bishop the loadings were excellent. I wonder if GNE will operate more services around the Bishop area?
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RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(06 Aug 2014, 6:21 pm)Tom wrote Must admit - last time I seen the X21 departing Durham for Bishop the loadings were excellent. I wonder if GNE will operate more services around the Bishop area?

The strongest section of the route is Newcastle - Durham, rather than Durham - Bishop Auckland. I really can't see any more resources being plugged into Bishop Auckland, but I could be wrong.

In my experience, the loadings certainly haven't been brilliant - and that's never come as much as a surprise to me, given that Arriva operate more frequent services in that area.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(06 Aug 2014, 6:23 pm)Dan wrote The strongest section of the route is Newcastle - Durham, rather than Durham - Bishop Auckland. I really can't see any more resources being plugged into Bishop Auckland, but I could be wrong.

In my experience, the loadings certainly haven't been brilliant - and that's never come as much as a surprise to me, given that Arriva operate more frequent services in that area.

Must have just been that one occasion then!
How does the 18 do?
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(06 Aug 2014, 6:24 pm)Tom wrote Must have just been that one occasion then!
How does the 18 do?

The X21 is busy between Bishop Auckland and Durham at peak times as on this section of the route it picks up a few Durham Johnston School pupils and it picks up loads of New College students as the X21 runs up to Framwellgate Moor all day while the 6 only runs up there at peak times only. Other times of the day it seems to have fair amount of passengers (many of them concession passes).

I think the 18 does okay in Bishop Auckland as from the Coundon end the Arriva 56 is not the most reliable service in the world, also the 18 has an edge as it runs past Asda, Morrisons and the hospital where as if you got the 56 you would have to change bus or walk the rest of the way.

I doubt we'll see Go North East start up any more routes in Bishop Auckland after the OK1 failed.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(06 Aug 2014, 5:59 pm)NEBCD Malarkey wrote Just been thinking, although it could be a Long Shot due to said Vehicles only Receiving a Repaint in May 2012, But would the Red Kite justify Double Deckers, and more so Justify them if Toonlink Service 47 was to join the Brand, and then be extended from Blackhall Mill to Consett via Medomeley and Leadgate, Thus upping the Frequency to Every 10 Minutes and also having the Services Interwork with eachother.

As a Result Toonlink Service 11 would be a Standalone Service, while Services 31/32 would still Interwork, and on top of that would still receive Investment this year.

Following on from my thought from Yesterday, I have had another thought, this time it regards the Tynedale Links Network, With MPD's last being Repainted in 2009 and no doubt being due for another, and 5210 sitting in Plain Yellow at the moment with no signs of it getting Branded, could there be a Possibility that the Tynedale Links Network receive the Volvo B7RLE's off the Toonlink Network if the 11/31/32 and 47 get New Vehicles This Year, with 4982 being used as Red Spare alongside 5229 for both Tynedale Links/Xpress.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(07 Aug 2014, 7:55 pm)NEBCD Malarkey wrote Following on from my thought from Yesterday, I have had another thought, this time it regards the Tynedale Links Network, With MPD's last being Repainted in 2009 and no doubt being due for another, and 5210 sitting in Plain Yellow at the moment with no signs of it getting Branded, could there be a Possibility that the Tynedale Links Network receive the Volvo B7RLE's off the Toonlink Network if the 11/31/32 and 47 get New Vehicles This Year, with 4982 being used as Red Spare alongside 5229 for both Tynedale Links/Xpress.

Tynedale Links network is run by MPDs for a reason. I don't think B7RLEs would suit routes like the 683.

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RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(06 Aug 2014, 7:09 pm)Jimmi wrote The X21 is busy between Bishop Auckland and Durham at peak times as on this section of the route it picks up a few Durham Johnston School pupils and it picks up loads of New College students as the X21 runs up to Framwellgate Moor all day while the 6 only runs up there at peak times only. Other times of the day it seems to have fair amount of passengers (many of them concession passes).

I think the 18 does okay in Bishop Auckland as from the Coundon end the Arriva 56 is not the most reliable service in the world, also the 18 has an edge as it runs past Asda, Morrisons and the hospital where as if you got the 56 you would have to change bus or walk the rest of the way.

I doubt we'll see Go North East start up any more routes in Bishop Auckland after the OK1 failed.

The 18 should really get more credit than it does. It was an experiment at first, but it has grown into a very popular service and without going into too much detail, does more than pay its way. Personally there is scope for extension in my humble opinion, but after the OK1 debacle, I think GNE have had their fingers burned.

Let's make something clear about the OK1 too - the passengers who cried out for some competition, killed the OK1 by simply boarding the first bus that turned up!
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
To be honest, i dont think Arriva should have even came in with competition for the service. GNE just wanted to revive the whole 'OK' travel name back to Bishop Auckland - which arriva wouldnt have done i must say and have a bus service that arriva didnt operate. In the OK1s case, it was just Arriva's greed that killed the OK1 by timing it so, as has already been said, passengers would get on the first bus that came to them. Arriva have plenty of services around that area and could easily manage without the X1 and just let GNE get on with the OK1 just like they have with service 18. It all comes down to that saying 'would you like it if somebody did that to you' and in arriva's case the answer would be no because they would be losing out on money for the sake of a few minutes.
RE: 2014 GNE Bus Order Predictions
(07 Aug 2014, 9:01 pm)Robert wrote To be honest, i dont think Arriva should have even came in with competition for the service. GNE just wanted to revive the whole 'OK' travel name back to Bishop Auckland - which arriva wouldnt have done i must say and have a bus service that arriva didnt operate. In the OK1s case, it was just Arriva's greed that killed the OK1 by timing it so, as has already been said, passengers would get on the first bus that came to them. Arriva have plenty of services around that area and could easily manage without the X1 and just let GNE get on with the OK1 just like they have with service 18. It all comes down to that saying 'would you like it if somebody did that to you' and in arriva's case the answer would be no because they would be losing out on money for the sake of a few minutes.
Yes but it's business, and Arriva wouldn't just give away custom when they can do something about it, it's not how business works