(06 Jan 2022, 2:49 am)Bazza wrote Opinions and predictions please!

Stagecoach: the first of the big three to show their hand with the planned merger with, or take over by (depends on your point of view) National Express. Will this development have any effect on local Stagecoach services?  One consequence of this will be the National Express contracts once ran by GNE.   Will these now be ran by Stagecoach?  What will happen to the Megabus services ran out of the northeast Stagecoach depots? The pandemic surely pushed NX into expanding their reach into local bus services, these at least had government support, whereas the coaching business didn’t get anything like that sort of help. 

Arriva: obvious that DB are desperate to divest themselves of Arriva UK Bus.  They’ve recently closed their company pension scheme, which to me is to make the company as a whole a more attractive proposition to any potential buyer. Was Trandevs acquisition of Yorkshire Tiger a precursor to a full or partial takeover of the business? Or are there other potential buyers on the horizon?

GNE: until recently probably seen as the most secure of the big 3. However, the pandemic has played havoc with any plans they had two years ago and it is almost a reset. There’s also the small problem that the Go Ahead Group currently has regarding their rail franchises, share trading has been suspended in the last couple of days. It was recently reported that the First Group, having sold operations in North America, we’re looking to refocus on their UK bus operations and that Go Ahead were on their radar, how likely is this?

It has been reported that the ‘levelling up’ agenda and the possibility of more investment in bus services and public transport (think BSIP) may make bus companies more attractive investments than they have been for many years, or is that just pie in the sky?

GNE has been the weakest of the three up here for years. They barely make a profit and that's pre pandemic nevermind after hence the cuts, cuts, cuts which have been going on for years masked by some fancy repaints. Stagecoach by a country mile is the most secure up here.

Arriva up here would be quite attractive imo. Makes a profit and there's potential for growth with investment. It's the depots down South which are the big problem especially the South Counties and Midlands which have been making a loss for years and it's also where the fleet is the worst.
 (excluding Hartlepool and South Shields). Transdev won't be buying them though.