(16 Jul 2026, 11:07 am)Adrian wrote It's not a suggestion that they will or would, it's a suggestion that they could - big difference!
There's been some blurring of this over a couple of posts now, and tbh I get why, but this is my reading of it:

• Cross-boundary services are generally in-scope based on a core test of over 50% of timetabled mileage being within the franchise scheme area.
  
• This is unless including it in the franchising scheme risks an adverse impact on the commercial network in the neighbouring LTA area(s).
  
• The external portion of that route still needs to be registered per the Transport Act
  
• The 50% test is a policy, not a hard rule or legal cap. There'd be nothing preventing NEMSA from securing a service that was say 30%/70% in/out of the franchise area, if they thought it was important enough and it met the tests of a secured service, i.e. that the service wouldn't otherwise be provided, and the competition test in the Transport Act 2000.
  

So going back to the 23, that's probably a good example of something that NEMSA will be in a position of needing to save, unless Arriva think there's merit in continuing it commercially when they'd no longer have a wider network out of Peterlee.

I think this is where you'd probably see these sorts of routes operating under a Service Permit, much like they already do in Greater Manchester.

For example:

Transdev 1: Blackburn – Darwen – Astley Bridge – Bolton
Rosso 481/483: Blackburn – Haslingden – Rawtenstall – Bury
Transdev X43 "The Witch Way": Burnley – Rawtenstall – Prestwich – Manchester
High Peak 199 Skyline: Buxton – Manchester Airport

They all cross into the Bee Network area but continue to operate under Service Permits rather than being part of the franchised network.

Up here, I'd say the X10 Newcastle – Gateshead – Dalton Park – Stockton – Middlesbrough is probably the best comparison and could end up operating in a similar way.

One thing I have wondered though is what happens to routes like the X10 in the longer term. As National Express and FlixBus sit outside franchising anyway, could there eventually be a case for express routes like the X10 becoming part of that wider coach market instead? That would leave the franchised network to concentrate more on local and regional services.

Just something I've been thinking about rather than saying that's what will happen, but it's an interesting one to consider.


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