At the end of the day if GNE can't make it profit they remove the service, use it or lose it, it is simple business
and if you don't get that ur stupid I hate to say it however GNE hast to make money they have staff to pay. Not run a bus service which is bleeding money. Simple
(16 Aug 2021, 5:53 pm)Wybus wrote [ -> ]I’m still not sure how GNE know what the demand will be when we continue to come out of lockdown. Many people have not gone properly back to work in the office, I also expect many were not going out for leisure purposes as much as previously due to being a bit nervous or due to all the general faff it was, but they will do. It all seems too premature to me.
There maybe a very good reason why lots of bus routes are changing in early September:
The COVID-19 Bus Services Support Grant (CBSSG) ceases to be paid on 31/08/2021.
It is being replaced by the Bus Recovery and Maintenance Grant (BRMG) but the BRMG will only be of one third of the value of the CBSSG.
The BRMG will run until April 2022 when the Enhanced Partnerships should be in place across England.
Any route that has not doing very well passenger wise now (and which may not have been pre-COVID) will be reviewed by bus company management teams as to whether it is likely to increase in usage in the next few months, if it does not look like it will, then those routes will disappear, as the magic money tree (i.e. the tax payer) that has funded bus routes since March 2020 will be cutting it's funding by two thirds in about 2 weeks time.
(16 Aug 2021, 7:03 pm)L469 YVK wrote [ -> ]But how did Arriva achieve a profit? Only investment since September 2014 in Northumbria has been 7541-52 and thats it. If Arriva/DB actually replaced the following (based on pre-covid):
- 10x 308 + 1x spare
- 13x X10/X11 + 1x spare
- 10x X15/X18 + 1x spare
That's 36x vehicles and based on a list price of £250,000 (could be more), that's nearly £9M. And........if they spent on the other outlying services too (X7/X8/X9 & X14/X20), that total would increase yet again.
So in short, Arriva have achieved a profit but what's their long term outlook? They're going to need to spend sooner or later and the only way they'll be able to afford to spend will be to reduce PVR's which means cutting services.
GNE do actually have some capacity to grow and funnily enough, Arriva would have big potential with the right investment and strategy going forward.
North Tyneside.........Stagecoach I'd say yes with the 22 but not much bite from Arriva considering GNE's recent investment & changes to the 309/310/311 not forgetting the potential for EV operation if the bid is successful.
Investment doesn't affect profits though. It's all done in the balance sheet which will be depreciated over the lifetime of the bus, so it's still the same for the Gemini's which will be still be getting paid off now every year.
It's more about what routes they've got that's why. Arriva serve close towns in the case of SE Northumberland which are ex pit towns / villages and naturally have a lower car usage with no competition at all. It's how they can get away with what they're doing. It's the same with Stagecoach in the West End running MAN buses around. It's the similar down Durham way with Bishop Auckland, Spennymoor, Shildon etc. The routes are also dead close by so you can serve multiple towns / villages enroute to Newcastle without it being a detour Blyth -> Cramlington -> Newcastle or Ashington -> Bedlington -> Newcastle each with their own flows.
Compare that to GNE, they've got Peterlee, North Tyneside, Sunderland and South Tyneside which are all competition hot spots and argubly they have the weaker routes in the areas, Derwentside is a nightmare to serve as you have two large towns then pretty much nothing inbetween with the complication of either serving the Metro Centre or Newcastle but not both as it's too 'slow' but there's money there. Washington and Peterlee are both very high car usage areas. What's left, Gateshead which is a good area and it shows with multiple 15 minute+ services, no doubt it's where most of the money comes from aswell - notice there's been few cuts there over the years and Hexham / Tyne Valley which are both strong areas - also no cuts there.
(16 Aug 2021, 7:08 pm)Michael wrote [ -> ]I noticed that some of the timetable logo's have changed on the GNE site... so the likes of "Sunderland District Berries" appear for the 2/2A, "Sunderland District Blue" for the 61 etc
Some don't seem to be changed. The Country Ranger(whatever its called)
47/47A is still marked as X Lines
Don't see any change to the 26 as it still says Crusader
(16 Aug 2021, 6:47 pm)L469 YVK wrote [ -> ]Of course it is but just using it as an example.
GNE could've just carried on as they were and kept fragmented and unprofitable services / networks running that just weren't sustainable in the long term looking at the bigger picture.
Sadly, some customers will lose links but that's the way it is. GNE are a business and they need to sustain themselves going forward in many ways.
Or in other words , the shareholders doesn’t want to lose money
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(16 Aug 2021, 7:03 pm)L469 YVK wrote [ -> ]That's 36x vehicles and based on a list price of £250,000 (could be more), that's nearly £9M. And........if they spent on the other outlying services too (X7/X8/X9 & X14/X20), that total would increase yet again.
Aren't buses purchased on finance plans these days?
(16 Aug 2021, 7:53 pm)mb134 wrote [ -> ]Aren't buses purchased on finance plans these days?
Why let a little fact like that get in the way of his daily "Arriva is shit" rant?
(16 Aug 2021, 7:53 pm)mb134 wrote [ -> ]Aren't buses purchased on finance plans these days?
Very uncommon.
They’re usually bought outright and the companies depreciate the value of the bus over 10-15 years.
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(16 Aug 2021, 7:00 pm)N1cholas wrote [ -> ]It is amusing when you see newspaper articles or facebook complaints about services being cut, but when the service being cut carries fresh air all day then somehow 2-300 people sign a petition to keep it running, if only those 2-300 people used the service in the first place it wouldn't get taken away, it simply is use it or loose it
Exactly. You see all these people crawling out of the woodwork when they probably barely use the service that is being cut. A prime example recently is the furore over the 25 last year when it got rerouted away from the QE Hospital and people kicked off on social media. GNE compromised and introduced the 925, which has ended up being withdrawn due to low use. From the amount of people booting off on Facebook you'd have thought it would have been packed every journey.
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(16 Aug 2021, 7:22 pm)IRHardy wrote [ -> ]There maybe a very good reason why lots of bus routes are changing in early September:
The COVID-19 Bus Services Support Grant (CBSSG) ceases to be paid on 31/08/2021.
It is being replaced by the Bus Recovery and Maintenance Grant (BRMG) but the BRMG will only be of one third of the value of the CBSSG.
The BRMG will run until April 2022 when the Enhanced Partnerships should be in place across England.
Any route that has not doing very well passenger wise now (and which may not have been pre-COVID) will be reviewed by bus company management teams as to whether it is likely to increase in usage in the next few months, if it does not look like it will, then those routes will disappear, as the magic money tree (i.e. the tax payer) that has funded bus routes since March 2020 will be cutting it's funding by two thirds in about 2 weeks time.
Thing is though you can chop and change services, withdraw services due to low usage etc but I think the main issue is actually the cost of fares which puts any potential passengers off of using the services in question and keeps more cars on the road year in year out and I would say since restrictions have lifted more people are learning to drive than ever before which only further impacts Public Transport, Post-Covid is it still viable to be charging the following for Day/Weekly and Monthly Travel.
£5.30 - One Zone Day Ticket
£7 - All Zones Day Ticket
£20 (App) / £23 (On The Bus) - One Zone Weekly Ticket
£25 (App) / £30 (On The Bus) - All Zone Weekly Ticket
£75 - One Zone Monthly Ticket
£95 - All Zones Monthly Ticket
Then you have the Go Local Saver Zones which I have to admit are lot more attractively priced against the above, so why not scrap the Go Zones/Route Saver/Day Return range of tickets altogether and simply have five ticket options without any "Zonal" system in place that give all potential passengers across the region the exact same prices as in the current form some areas are paying more than others which is far from fair if I am being honest, so I would go with the following pricing and this actually in line with the current Local Saver Prices for Day/Weekly Travel and as their isn't a Monthly/Annual option on this ticket type I have priced it at a reasonable price as shown below.
Single Ticket - £1
Day Ticket - £4
Weekly Travel - £15
Monthly Ticket - £40
Annual Ticket - £360
I believe this would send out a positive message to potential passengers across the region and with a high drive in publicising these fare changes through various platforms I think more people will switch to getting the bus which in turn will make services which not viable at the moment and requiring council supported funding to become commercially viable in the future.
(16 Aug 2021, 7:57 pm)big mac wrote [ -> ]Exactly. You see all these people crawling out of the woodwork when they probably barely use the service that is being cut. A prime example recently is the furore over the 25 last year when it got rerouted away from the QE Hospital and people kicked off on social media. GNE compromised and introduced the 925, which has ended up being withdrawn due to low use. From the amount of people booting off on Facebook you'd have thought it would have been packed every journey.
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In fairness hospital links isn't probably the best thing to use there. People tend to only go to hospitals when they need to either for appointments or visiting someone. It'd be a bit weird to have bus loads of people going to a hospital every journey, the 925 was setup to fail.
That one weekly appointment could be enough to tempt someone to use the car though and then realise how much better it is and never use the bus again, hospital services have to be part of another route to succeed such as the 25 rather than going around estates like Harlow Green which is a detour and has no benefit of anyone in Birtley and even more so Lanchester (the route is long enough as it is).
Noticed on the PDF timetables for the 24/7 routes that 0000-0400 is tagged onto the end of the day instead of the start. I understand that it's to promote that there's no longer a "last bus" - but surely anyone looking for the overnight times will look at the start of the timetable?
(16 Aug 2021, 7:57 pm)MurdnunoC wrote [ -> ]Why let a little fact like that get in the way of his daily "Arriva is shit" rant?
Total opposite, it's actually quite sad to see the way Arriva are at the moment and Northumbria would be capable of great things with the right investment, direction and strategy.
(16 Aug 2021, 7:57 pm)Dan wrote [ -> ]Very uncommon.
They’re usually bought outright and the companies depreciate the value of the bus over 10-15 years.
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Fair enough. Given the relatively big initial outlay I'd have thought at the very least they might be bought by the parent company (i.e Go Ahead) and then financed by the local subsidiaries (i.e GNE).
(16 Aug 2021, 8:36 pm)L469 YVK wrote [ -> ]- But what about the "next generation" of bus users in SE Northumberland also taking into account the ABTRL? If they keep experiencing a Gemini in limp mode or a sub-standard B7TL deputising or constantly getting chased by the bus behind due to late running, they're going to be more tempted towards alternative modes of transport. Again, short term vs long term.
I'm not sure how every discussion on a GNE thread ends up being about VDL Gemini's on Blyth express work.
The Blyth and Tyne line, imo, will have sod all impact on the ANE services into Newcastle from Blyth. They're already talking about cutting the Bebside station before the thing gets off the ground, so realistically everyone from Blyth is getting a bus to Newsham anyway - at which point you may as well just stay on it?
I hate to break it to you, but new vehicles have issues too. E400 MMCs not restarting at stops and whatever is going on with the X1 Streetdecks as two examples - both of which are arguably more noticeable than a VDL being in limp mode (which I've not had for a long time, and even then it wasn't horrendous). Then we get to "a B7TL deputising" - may I point you towards the Omnidekkas on the X21, there were 2 or 3 on there today.
This post isn't meant to paint ANE as some sort of angelic operator, every company has their flaws and I've been more than critical of ANE on investment in the past, but even if it was it doesn't even begin to balance out the swathes of constant negativity towards them - and remember, as has been pointed out on social media a fair bit recently, folk who work for them do read these posts and I don't imagine it's exactly motivating.
(16 Aug 2021, 8:54 pm)mb134 wrote [ -> ]I'm not sure how every discussion on a GNE thread ends up being about VDL Gemini's on Blyth express work.
The Blyth and Tyne line, imo, will have sod all impact on the ANE services into Newcastle from Blyth. They're already talking about cutting the Bebside station before the thing gets off the ground, so realistically everyone from Blyth is getting a bus to Newsham anyway - at which point you may as well just stay on it?
I hate to break it to you, but new vehicles have issues too. E400 MMCs not restarting at stops and whatever is going on with the X1 Streetdecks as two examples - both of which are arguably more noticeable than a VDL being in limp mode (which I've not had for a long time, and even then it wasn't horrendous). Then we get to "a B7TL deputising" - may I point you towards the Omnidekkas on the X21, there were 2 or 3 on there today.
This post isn't meant to paint ANE as some sort of angelic operator, every company has their flaws and I've been more than critical of ANE on investment in the past, but even if it was it doesn't even begin to balance out the swathes of constant negativity towards them - and remember, as has been pointed out on social media a fair bit recently, folk who work for them do read these posts and I don't imagine it's exactly motivating.
Oh yeah the X21 is a joke, I have checked several times every day (Mon-Sat) for about 3 week I have never seen all buses on it, putting omnidekkas on it would put me off from going on it. X21 never has correct buses on.
(16 Aug 2021, 6:47 pm)L469 YVK wrote [ -> ]Of course it is but just using it as an example.
GNE could've just carried on as they were and kept fragmented and unprofitable services / networks running that just weren't sustainable in the long term looking at the bigger picture.
Sadly, some customers will lose links but that's the way it is. GNE are a business and they need to sustain themselves going forward in many ways.
From your previous postings, you have an excellent and frequent bus service, with two major operators servicing you. If you didn't, would you be taking the same "I'm alright, Jack" attitude towards your community losing a vital link?
Cutting services and links, yet at the same time preaching to people about taking the bus instead of their car. You cannot have it both ways I'm afraid.
(16 Aug 2021, 8:54 pm)mb134 wrote [ -> ]I'm not sure how every discussion on a GNE thread ends up being about VDL Gemini's on Blyth express work.
The Blyth and Tyne line, imo, will have sod all impact on the ANE services into Newcastle from Blyth. They're already talking about cutting the Bebside station before the thing gets off the ground, so realistically everyone from Blyth is getting a bus to Newsham anyway - at which point you may as well just stay on it?
I hate to break it to you, but new vehicles have issues too. E400 MMCs not restarting at stops and whatever is going on with the X1 Streetdecks as two examples - both of which are arguably more noticeable than a VDL being in limp mode (which I've not had for a long time, and even then it wasn't horrendous). Then we get to "a B7TL deputising" - may I point you towards the Omnidekkas on the X21, there were 2 or 3 on there today.
This post isn't meant to paint ANE as some sort of angelic operator, every company has their flaws and I've been more than critical of ANE on investment in the past, but even if it was it doesn't even begin to balance out the swathes of constant negativity towards them - and remember, as has been pointed out on social media a fair bit recently, folk who work for them do read these posts and I don't imagine it's exactly motivating.
GNE's X21 funnily enough (I do have flaws with GNE too), I was actually disappointed (although the recent changes reveal why) when they split the original E400MMC order that the X21 wasn't considered. StreetDecks again, I don't personally think they're suited to the X1 and I'd hope that GNE have a succession route for them when better times allow or worst case, replace after 5 years.
None of what's happening is the fault of any frontline staff & key backline staff (i.e drivers & fitters) at Arriva. Arriva actually turned a bit of a corner between 2010-2014 but sadly since then, minimal investment or innovation. I'd hope that unless it's broken and sold off, that new owners come in for the UK bus ops as a whole and actually make a good go of it! The Northumbria network is actually a good starting base with the correct investment, marketing and strategy. Northumbria could be easily streamlining without actually making any "major" cuts although some direct links would have to go.
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